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North American Palladium Limited Şirket Message Board

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 9, 2012 11:34 AM Flag

    Conf call

    Only one significant thing I heard during Q/A

    "We have had considerable interest in Veeza"

    That was it, no follow up or elaboration.

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    • I misspoke when I used the word, "reserves" yesterday. I meant, "stores." During the cc, the analyst said "stores." And I was basically echoing your statement when you used the word "inventories," or "inventory."

      Thanks for the clarity regarding the word, "reserves."

    • hollywoodharpo Aug 11, 2012 3:41 AM Flag

      Non use in cars are 75% certain! Pharmaceuticals,pesticides, and robotics are just YOUR wild GUESS !! NICE TRY !!!!!

    • You're right. I just caught the ar pledged to loc. Also, inventories are pledged. But I didn't consider inventories in valuation.

      Okay, so the ar secures the loc. The loc holds the 65.4mil working cap, no? 23mil of that is cash.

      Plus 43mil in new debt.

      Plus (35mil from flow through) - (commissions, fees, and 6.8mil already used)

      How is CapEx not covered? I mean, assuming leftover from flow through is not less than ~20mil. Plus sale of Vezza and adjusted net of 1.9million to pay interest costs during quarter.

    • You don't know the future.

      But to indulge you, you're right, "In 10 years they wont be using palladium in cars anymore." We'll be using Pd in energy production, and in the production of pharmaceuticals and pesticides, and robotics.

      Hollywood will have fallen into the ocean, and Pd will serve as the catalyst to produce a certain gas to save all the idiots who fell in with her.

    • HSBC cutting PD estimates

      "The palladium 2012 price forecast is down 17%, to $655 an ounce. (See my note 1) The 2013 price forecast for platinum was cut by $200, to $1,625 and the palladium forecast was cut by $75, to $750. The 2014 average price estimate was cut by $25, to $1,775 for platinum and by $35, to $800 for palladium."

      So much for near term $1000.

      Note 1: Wow, these guys can predict the past!!!!!

      "The reserves are WHAT will get the company through the short term.>>

      There is a confusion about the word reserves. In mining, that refers to stuff in the ground, not stuff in the vault. Reserves take money to extract and then sell. Pd margin dropped 31% QOQ.

      "Management has been considerably disciplined over the last few years at maintaining cash enough to pay expenses and keeping debt low."

      Really. SG? Veeza? The cash has come from financing not operations
      Debt low? Just added 43M.

      <<NAP can cover their long term debt today with accts receivable.>>

      Sorry. LT debt is about $110M including recent $43M. AR is only $84M. Subtracting AP leaves just $35M. FYI AR already pledged as collateral for LOC.

    • Also just bececuase the cash on hand may run our the resource is still there. Even if they issue even more shares which would be dilutive that would not draw SP to 0.00.

      • 1 Reply to mducrane
      • And if, as you say, the share price dropped considerably, you could buy more or initiate a position with considerably less risk, or a greater margin of safety. Look, with all debt paid and zero cash, someone would buy that mine. If so, you as a shareholder would get paid a portion of what that mine is worth after all the Company debt is paid. The leftover is split between warrants, options, preferred, and common. You get to determine what the Company's assets are worth, and what your suspected share of the sale of those assets would be.

        But the assets speak for themselves. Bottom line, NAP produces and sells a commodity. Dealing with a commodity implies high capex and capital costs relative to inflation. Management has the task of speaking for the business.

        Here are some questions by which to gauge management. Has NAP ever failed to deliver product. How is NAP revered among its peers, including competitors, lenders, and industrial users of its product, i.e.: smelters? And how well does the company's management reduce costs? And finally but ultimately, does the company shift the operational and budgetary targets every year or few years to accommodate results?

        Unless we're being lied to by management, or we are fools and fail to see our mistakes in analyzing the numbers, then management is doing two things well. They are reducing costs and hitting targets. Pd is a commodity; however, NAP has the opportunity to build itself as a consistently dependable supplier of the commodity.

    • <<The Chief Econimist and others at Ford are hoping/planning on 16 million unit years towards the end of this **DECADE**,>>

      If he had said in 2013 that would be good news.

      At an estimated 4 gms of Pd per converter and increase of 2 M cars is a meager 250K oz over the next 7 years (37,000 increase each year). Don't count on the rest of the world as the auto recession is just starting there.

      Just a matter of time until the Pd price estimates plummet and all the experts expect a surplus.

    • John,
      SLW is not a miner. It is a silver streaming company.
      They are like a bank for gold miners lending money to miners
      for business operations and get paid back with silver byproduct
      at a set price.

    • What about the bold prediction of Pd "testing the all-time high of $1100/oz" in the next two years?

      If NAP can truly get LDI shaft commissioned and reduce operating costs as projected the stock price has a lot of upside with $1100/oz Pd.

    • they also said Vezza dilution issue not that much of a big deal.

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