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North American Palladium Limited Şirket Message Board

  • lvlarry_75 lvlarry_75 Dec 23, 2012 5:08 PM Flag

    Knee jerk reaction to the filing F-10

    I have read more thoroughly this filing, and I apologize for my knee jerk reaction about it sounding very bad. It was what I would call the "disclaimers" in the filing that sounded bad. It is my opinion that most of this is already baked into the share price already, however the knee jerk reaction will probably be to sell now and ask questions later, because of the necessity of up to 300 mil for future exploration, aquisitions, and corporate expenses, and further share dilution. I feel that a new management team would not do this right away with share prices so low and the possible divesture of the gold assets early next year. As a shareholder I feel, like some others on this board that they should hold off on more capex until they can show some results with the capex already spent, and let the share price recover, otherwise the future earnings per share will only get worse, even with strong metal prices. Future investment is great, but prove that the money is being well spent, something NAP has not been doing yet.
    For me, I question if I should bet on the future management doing a good job, and using this knee jerk reaction, if pps falls on Monday, to buy more or to hold what I have and wait for the dust to settle. It will be hard to accurately judge tomorrow how this will affect big traders because of the holiday.

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    • I just read the whole shelf registration. Without sugar coating it, it is a dilution. This is somewhat common and I have been through this about 10-15 times with other securities I have held over the past 10 years. No need to panic yet (but be sure the market will tomorrow). As stated in the F-10, it is not effective yet. It will be effective after the filing of the next amendment. They DON'T HAVE TO issue the new shares...but, upon the filing of the AMENDMENT form, they will have 25 months to issue them. So they could issue up to 300mill worth or zero. The F-10 gives them the option to do as the like for the next 25 months.

      Now the purpose of why PAL is doing this...the F-10 specifically states, "the Company anticipates using the net proceeds received from the sale of Securities for exploration and development expenditures at the Lac des Iles mine and to fund exploration and development expenditures at other properties, and for general corporate purposes, which may potentially include future acquisitions. It is anticipated that the Company will invest funds that it does not immediately require in investment grade income securities or short-term marketable securities." Not bad. They are raising money via dilution to invest more capital into Lac des lles and future acquisitions. We would all like for the company to do this through company PROFIT but it's a tough economy and looks like they need to make this move now, so they are raising it by equity financing.

      Let's see how the market reacts tomorrow. My guess is closing at 90 cents tomorrow but back up to a buck or 1.10 by Friday. I'd buy at 90 cents or below tomorrow.

    • Dude, Just stop already!!! This ridiculous reaction to a shelf registration by a CFO that is cleaning his desk off for the next guy is discrediting this board. PAL sold off due to the overall market selling off and an article that included information we already knew and a very late downgrade with a price target of $1.70. PAL will be 50% higher in a few short weeks ... relax already!!!!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy