you're doing a decent job of keeping it together, so let's break this out and break it down.. previous points regarding trade limitations and price aside..
"That of how your emotional clutch is rationale for setting upper limit."
you keep saying this.. i didn't say it was an absolute upper bound, just very likely closer to the high end than the floor. Lehman isn't UBS.. your example's good DD regarding a similar set of circumstances with the actual litigation, but it fails to take into account UBS is a going concern and LBI isn't. i don't see what's so difficult to comprehend about that.. there's only so much scratch to go around. and Giddens' job is to make sure anyone without a concrete claim (secured or unsecured notes) gets as little as possible. that's just the way it works. it's pretty evident what lehman did and the harm that resulted, but it's still untested as of yet. the fact that giddens hasn't moved to have it expunged yet is a good sign. but he's going to be pushing for the minimum possible payout, and time and cost of litigation is going to factor into both sides' strategies. cash in hand is better than warrants in a bush, or something. (which is a whole different topic, hopefully not for some future date).
One post only since this was a good post (finally). The original lawsuit was for 31.5 million, plus 6 million in interest, plus treble damages of 94.5 million. That gets you to the 132 million total (zero chance)
Those Auction Rate Securities have already been cashed in, between the time of the suit in 2008 and 2011/2012. 4Kids got a low amount, possibly 20 cents on the dollar.
The true loss could very well be 20 (ish) million. Now, assuming 40 percent general unsecured recovery and you have 8 million. The absolute low end is probably 20 cents on the dollar, which is 4 million. That is the doomsday bad luck scenario.
But the claim is not simply a restitution claim. There was fraud involved on the part of Lehman. The three individual brokers settled with 4Kids for 489K in late 2011 to avoid going to arbitration, and it is those exact same facts that guide this claim.
4Kids has that bit of leverage going for it. Without a Lehman bankruptcy, 4Kids would have a somewhat legit chance of getting lucky and getting close to the total claim amount of 132 million. But everything would have to go right, and they would still probably have to wait out appeals. But that doesn't matter, because Lehman IS in bankruptcy.
The most likely result is that 4Kids and the Trustee come to an agreement. Second most likely is that the BK Judge gets involved. The third most likely is arbitration. The least likely is that the Trustee suggests an amount between zero and whatever, and the Judge agrees. It is close to 100% chance of mutual agreement.
I'll take 15 million, a $1.50 share price before year end. Then sit back and see if isoblox takes off, plus potential buyout involving NOL's. Buyout in the $3.50 range within 18 month is fine. I prefer a NO DECISION end like that (everyone gets out at highest tick that way).
General unsecured will get a percentage, so the Trustee/4Kids could agree to a number like 35 million, in order to get to the desired of 15 million payout.
Unfortunately deek, you are misinformed in regards to NOL. NOL's for practical purposes are non transferable. A new owner/ buyer will trigger an ownership change and will curtail full offset. That 3 year testing period is pepetually renewing. It does not mean that ownership change can happen willy nilly after a single 3 yera period expires. It is a virtual testing period so it renews constantly and overlaps.
There is a waay. A potential acquirer can acquire shares very slowly. But company's current rights plan makes t iimposible without their blessing.
In regards to lehman recovery, obviously trustee and 4LC could settle. But 4LC has case precedence to push for full allowance. Payoit recovery will be limited by unsecured class recovery rate, imo.
Btw, trustee is due to file 1st quarterly report on claim analysis to date. It will contain info on which claims were rejected , denied, etc. His 9th status update said he will file in beginning of july. So within couple days at the latest. I doubt there will be new info. It will just be summary of omnibus rejections filed to date (109 at last count). 4LC had duplicate claim rejected but no info on whether it was allowed/denied/settled. So we wait.
deek, you keep saying: "plus potential buyout involving NOL's. Buyout in the $3.50 range within 18 month is fine. I prefer a NO DECISION end like that (everyone gets out at highest tick that way). "
i keep telling you: can't happen like that.. value of the enterprise can double roughly every two years, but only with no change in control. otherwise NOLs go poof. OTOH, if most of those are offset by any recovery from LBI, anything can happen :)