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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

  • cben15606 cben15606 Dec 5, 2012 1:15 PM Flag

    O'Malley @ yesterday's investor conf

    Nothing negative, bullish as always, probly mirrors WDC. A few points:

    Planning on TAM 140 million next few quarters with good industry inventory management currently. If TAM up in March/June great, if flat then expect industry to start "taking infrastructure out", reducing capacity to protect margins.

    Comment about becoming more involved with cloud; "more active than just a traditional component supplier"

    Talked about end stage consolidation is here. 90 drive makers down to 3. STX/WDC are the only vertically integrated with 85-90% share. Toshiba is not, and may have problems as a result. Supply chain also max consolidated. Capex or other will be made if necessary to protect their suppliers!

    Mobility: The usual company line: smartphones, tablets driving overall storage growth(57% CAGR).

    Areal dens'y: as gravity enjoys pointing out STX expects to be first with HAMR

    Discussed similarity of model to WDC, return to shareholders etc. Prepared to pull in capex if required, emphasizing shareholder return.

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    • Watched the video. Thanks to whoever posted the info about it on the Seagate investor website.

      The presentation brought home a couple good points. I think most people think of hard drives as a computer component. But there are two things he said that helped investors realize that Seagate is more than just a computer component.

      1. Cloud will be 60% of the HDD business by the end of the decade. And cloud storage will grow at about 60% per year. I think most investors like to invest in the growing cloud (look at RAX valuations). Now STX and WDC are cloud plays.
      2. As mobile devices have grown over the past few years, HDD storage has also grown. So rather than PC sales driving HDD sales, it looks like mobile device sales (which lead to more photos, movies, data usage) ALSO leads to higher HDD sales. So you can look at STX and WDC as mobile device plays.

      Basically, he's saying: "Hey, we're not a computer accessory. We're much more than that. If you want to invest in the cloud, invest in Seagate. If you want to invest in mobile devices, invest in Seagate."

    • yep that was the gist of it. as i see it not really something to rally over, but nothing to mark the price down. i will stick to i bet this tanks going into monthly options though.

 
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