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Durata Therapeutics, AŞ Message Board

  • sudnwealth sudnwealth Sep 22, 2013 6:08 PM Flag

    FOTD, would you mind breaking down DRTX vs TTPH ?

    I have much more TTPH than DRTX and was thinking about doubling up on DRTX. Which one do you prefer and why?? What do you think Jeffries saw that he didn't like?



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    • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Sep 23, 2013 2:37 PM Flag


      I like both companies and I think Jefferies likes DRTX just fine. Initiating with a hold gives their clients a chance to get in before the upgrade. IMO, look for it before the end of the year.

      A brief summary of my main thoughts on these companies: IMO, both stocks are very thinly traded and will have a lot of volatility. That said, holding long term carries little risk with either. I think the downside is minimal. They have good cash and good drugs. Not sure about management.

      DRTX is the better short term play for obvious reasons. Lots of catalysts next 12 mos. Hope and pray they don't try to market their drug on their own. I think approval is a slam dunk but the risk is that their game of chicken with big pharma ends with having to hire a team to sell the drug. That will delay any good return but should not endanger the long term as the drug has a definite niche. I would personally prescribe/administer it at least once per week. Market cap is pretty big already with DRTX. The Trius drug should be a better one and the company was a little more deep. If Trius was worth 700 million, then I'd put the b/o here at 350-500. So, while downside is limited, I believe upside is too.

      TTPH has seen a recent bump, I believe, because when insider stock became unrestricted last week there was no selling. That company has a real research arm and unique technology in the tetracycline structure that could ultimately spin off a number of good antibiotics. Their market cap is less than DRTX and it looks like the insiders are going to hold on for the long haul. There will be fewer catalysts over the next 1-2 years but I see more upside over 4-5 years than with DRTX. But, you never know when a big guy might take them out.

      I looked over INO and think the technology is good. I just don't know when they can expect to make any money. Without that insight, I will stay on the sidelines. Thanks


      • 2 Replies to afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine
      • Much thanks for your obeservations, which were quite valid and well said. Having owned TSRX from the low 4's I think their buyout price was a tad on the light side but it was still a homerun for shareholders.

        I still believe DRTX is worth closer to $13-$14 on a DCF price analysis. Has 83 mil in cash on hand, or around $3.15 per share. Dalbacancin should be worth $10 per share on approval. At your 500 mil market cap top of the range value for DRTX we should still easily see $14. Like it alot at current levels.

        TTPH, I was lukewarm on when it IPO'd but I have since been reading up on it and think I was wrong
        on their potential, which is still years away however. Hoping for a pullback in that name, where I will add.
        Hit one homerun this year with TSRX, and looking for round two with DRTX!

        Thanks again...

      • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Sep 23, 2013 2:51 PM Flag

        fwiw - increasing my allocation of HALO at these prices and will do so over the next few months if it weakens. Have some speculative money in CYTK and will keep an eye on COSMIC results for next decision.

        Have more cash than usual due to macro worries now.