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Publicis Groupe SA Message Board

  • iwantwhatscomingtome iwantwhatscomingtome Mar 13, 2007 10:55 PM Flag

    LEND v. AHH+A

    I dumped my token (100) LEND premarket and went all preferred, filing out a normal [could afford to lose it] position in AHH+A. Discussion of LEND guarantee of the preferred, and my assumptions are in this thread:

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    • Took loss on DRL. The selling of NY branches equates "pruning the flower and water the grass." JMO

    • Thanks. I did miss about $1.5 of the upmove in AHH+A as I took profit, then, contrary to my usual problem with anchoring, bought back in $1.5 higher. Also missed $2 of the LEND move off its bottom for the same reason. But they made up for my JNJ option loss.

      As for DFR, I have owned it several times, when it got to book or lower. Like LEND, DFR has in the past reported that its investments have had below - peer credit loss rates. It is like KFN, but is at 1.05x instead of 1.2x book. Compare also v. a bank but without the bricks and mortar or corporate level taxation.

      I think KFN is a bit safer, but given its price, I think DFR is a better investment proposition.

    • Sorry, wrong company... I've been looking at DFC, not DFR.

    • Thanks and greetings, Mr. Iwant...that explains...quite a bind they are in... The ones that is to benefit might be someone who has deep pocket like Berkshire, even diversified banks are not likely to take on more exposure. More margin calls to originators are likely. Just wonder if the Fed is working on a bail out plan. It can't risk the domino effect JMO.
      I've been waiting for this for a couple of years. It's only the begining. For many of them, it's pay back time. Too bad I moved a bit too early and at much higher prices.
      Best regards, Sam

      • 1 Reply to sambordulac
      • Accredited's reported loss and delinquency history has been markedly better than the subprime industry averages - that kind of relatively conservative lending may appeal to deep pocketed buyers, possibly GS?

        Re: Real Assets of LEND

        Accredited shares rebound amid deal talk
        4:12p ET March 14, 2007 (Reuters)
        NEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. subprime mortgage lender Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. rebounded more than 50 percent on Wednesday amid speculation it might get a capital infusion or a takeover approach, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cited by traders as a possible partner.

        Amid the meltdown in the U.S. subprime lending market, Accredited has said it needs to raise money after paying $190 million that lenders demanded and that it is exploring "strategic options," including raising new capital.

        On Wednesday, Accredited was not immediately available for comment and Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

        "There is some speculation that Goldman Sachs is willing to commit funds to a lending company if they feel that the market has basically bottomed," said William Lefkowitz, options strategist at brokerage firm vFinance Investments in New York.