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Publicis Groupe SA Message Board

  • bdparts bdparts Dec 30, 2007 6:45 PM Flag


    greetings iwant: U had a
    very good call on SBUX I recall you said some
    time ago around 26/sh that it could go to the low
    20's and I think this qualifies as the low 20's....

    I know your plate seems full of other and possibly
    better Ideas now ... I only request -- now that you
    have had much more time to think about this litter
    'perker' .... if you think the 'recession story' and
    etc ... make this price level still too high or
    maybe worth a small sip or two ....

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    • Happy New Year


      I haven't been following the stock but now that you mention it, it does look reasonably priced, i can't recall it looking this reasonable. SBUX is my regular source of beans - and when i don't have time to make it, i try to go to SBUX , but for a drip. I also was pleasantly surprised by the quality of their breakfast sandwich in those Turbo ovens that crisp the english muffin.

      Its the $3 and $4 a cup fancy drinks that worries me in a recession, assuming we're in or going into one.

      Might be a good thing to drip into a little at a time to avoid plunging in to soon. One other thing in SBUX favor is it sells a kind of addictive product. Like MO only not viewed as evil or deadly

      I've been looking for reasonable consumer staple stocks. Until now, only MYL fit the bill. PFE I will nibble and write puts to get it a basis in the $21s. Everything else is up because everyone wants the staples. I might look at writing SBUX puts to get in or get some premiums until i get in. Got any other food/staples ideas?

      • 2 Replies to iwantwhatscomingtome
      • greetings Iwant ...
        and thanks for the great info on SBUX ... I called
        mine first thing this a.m. trying to find out if
        they had the breakfast sandwich that you mentioned...
        the guy replied ... "we are not a warming unit" ...
        the market wasn't opened or I might have sold some
        SBUX early a.m. after hearing the somewhat "snooty" (imo)
        reply ...... but I thought it over and simply
        watched it "recline" on its own .......
        so I can't get the SBUX breakfast sandwich in my small
        town .... such is life ..... nice mkt today ....

        Thanks for the info, no, I don't know of any more
        in the food/staples area of interest at the moment,
        but give me a few days and several more hundreds of
        points down .... and I may note a few ......
        best to you,

      • excerpt from 12/11 GS downgrade to neutral, $26 p/t

        <Our current thinking. Starbucks shares continue to face pressure for various reasons, some of which we believe to be warranted (mainly declining new unit productivity/ROIC, softer traffic trends and still rapid store expansion), while others we think are overstated (meaningful competition induced sales softness and a fractured brand). Unfortunately, however, we see few catalysts in the near-term to reverse sentiment and with another challenging quarter ahead, shares are more likely to remain range bound, in our view. Considering our negative consumer view, we see little hope for NT sales acceleration which will hamper productivity and further question the pace of SBUX domestic unit growth. Until either trend changes, multiple contraction is the risk. Longer-term, we still see great opportunity in Starbucks shares given its leadership position (great real estate) in the rapid specialty coffee segment domestically and a solid infrastructure to support accretive growth in its International markets. >