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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

  • valueguy66 valueguy66 Sep 9, 2011 6:30 AM Flag

    All longs should listen to the

    CEO on the KBW 9/7/11 conference call replay. You can listen to the call by going to the AGO website at investor information. Then go to presentations. Make sure you go to 9/7/11 presentation once on the KBW site. The bottom line is that CEO Frederico made the case to put AGO into runoff if S&P does not alter it's ratings criteria by November. Contrary to what was reported, S&P is still making very unrealistic demands and if this is not changed it makes no sense for them to write new muni insurance. The good news is that in run off they made the case that AGO is worth well north of $45 a share even under more dire circumstances. They named four ways to currently enhance return on capital while they wait on S&P. The two highest ROC things they can do right now are buy back shares and buy back securities which would result in ROC in excess of 20%. Interstingly the worst ROC thing is writing new insurance. The last question was very telling. He asked why not take this company private. The answer was "how do you know we are not thinking about this". If taken private we would see a discount from $45 but well north of $12 .I want the whole magilla and want this to go into runoff rather than be taken private because they have a whole bunch of rep and warrantee claims that are not even included in the the $45 adjusted book value calculation. This stock is extremely undevalued IMHO.Disclosure: Very long AGO common stock and will buy more on the dips.

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    • Two alternatives:

      1) Drop S&P rating and wait to see where Moody's stands. Perhaps check with Fitch on their rating again.

      2) Go into run-off with the exception of doing secondary market wraps where opportunities come up.

      No way they can be a full functioning bond insurer with the new S&P tests. S&P will have no bond insurers to rate by the end of the year.

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