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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

  • mookie771 mookie771 Oct 24, 2011 11:52 AM Flag

    Something is happening....more settlement news?

    Quite a nice little pop today, not seeing anything yet related to Harrisburg or settlement announcements with AGO anyone else left in this area....


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    • I don't think anything has changed. The volume today on AGO was not due to people chasing it. I think the valuation is appealing to traders who want some financials in their portfolios without going into the banks. AGO is way undervalued if you believe that interest rates on the long end will ever go up again. Let's face it AGO is not underwriting a lot of new public debt for two reasons; 1) spreads are narrow and, 2) not many new issues coming to market. For AGO, I think the structured finance segement will be where the opportunities will be, but we need to see the M&A activity get going again. Right now AGO best bets are to keep suing the banks on bogus RMBS paper and doing things to strengthen their credit rating. I don't see blowout earnings on new business for a while.

    • Nice pop, but volume isn't unusual. Makes me wonder. Could just be that Harrisburg article this morning.

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