What's there to warn??? The CEO made it very clear during the last conference call that he doesn't see any recovery until next year. We all know that!!! He painted a picture that sounded nearly suicidal. Insiders are selling!!! JDSU is on the "up and up" at this point.
The only way this stock could pretty much go is up. You watch...they'll come out with "OH we think we'll recover in the fall. Things are not as gloomy as we thought." They will change that story a few times. Maybe not...may the ene thingy has them scared and they dont' want the SEC around. Who knows!!! There going to tell us the same damn thing this quarter as they did last quarter. If they keep to their story that they gave us last quarter there won't be much of a difference. You watch...the odds of them saying "We think recovery is closer than we thought" is a stronger possiblity like 60% chance. As long as the keep to the story the stock will be fine.
You probably should have shorted higher than you did. This one isn't in the bank. The stock is screaming "HOLD" or "Stay the hell away from me, unless you already have a position. I don't know which way I'm going to go!!!"
The stock has been sitting in a tight range now for a couple of days. Stock is going to move somewhere.
jdsu is at the low end of the food chain and provides components to the likes of ciena, nortel, lucent, marconi, onis, etc. All jdsu customers are reporting lower revenues and sales forecasts. The concensus is $257. I don't think they are going to m make $200 million. I thinks the market is going to react the same way as they reacted to lucent. Stay on the sideleines and watch the carnage.
I am concerned with the fact that roughly 60% of the equity value is goodwill, which could be evaluated as worthless paper. The book value is then mainly based on this stock holders equity. Some analysts have mentioned that JDSU has a stong balance sheet. I am not so sure. They do have a comprehensive product line, and a large protion of the market, however one of the main reasons they succeeded where others could not is that they produced in volume, albeit with a very low cumulative yield. Another point I am uneasy with is that I do not know for sure what the insiders have in mind. If we agree that the book value could be evaluated significantly lower, then the published Price/book of 1.05 would not hold. Price/Sales is unsustainale at 5-6. Even if sales come back, they have to do something with their gross margins. Anyway it's a hell of a ride. Hope the wheels don't come off.
i understand that the company basically comitted suicide last quarter. But dont you think that the outlook then was that there would be a bottom this quarter? obviously not, according to Merril Lynch they had expected a capex decline of 12% now they believe that it is 20%. If JDSU biggest customers are warning that they cant call a bottom yet and keep cutting spending how is it possible for JDSU to say that they see a bottom? I think that this warning will be the last one. But i also believe JDSU will do the same thing as LU, they will push out the recovery to 2003. That would not be positive at these levels. The value investors that have been holding JDSU up here will run for cover and the stock will move down. I am looking to buy some april 5 puts for .25cents to cover my long position. This is just my opinion, although i would like a response from you.