730M shares outstanding X $3.00/ share= $2.2B market cap. Current net cash at $1.5B means the business is being valued at ~$700M. That's a little more than half their current revenue run rate. This certainly wasn't a good quarter but revenues grew, operating cash flow was positive and they have oodles of cash on the balance sheet. If this haircut holds up tomorrow I'll be buying. It won't take long before people with brains see the same thing.
If people are going to start claiming some poster on a Yahoo board is a genius, seek out their advice, and wow, check out their not-very-meaningful record despite totally blowing the thesis on the stock they're posting about... well, I had to point out the issues with that. And I'd do it again.
I don't need to dig out of anything. I stand by everything I've said, and if you're honest, you know it's true as well. But I didn't come here to try and take down some well-meaning fellow, not my goal at all, so it's time for lunch.
Currently there are 74,731 players in the competition and I'm raked number 525. I've been as high as number 5 early in the competition but there were only ~12K players at the time. I can tell you my portfolio is a play on the U.S. economy and I'll be in the top 100 players when the U.S. economy is healthy.
<<<And there's no evidence your portfolio reflects your success against the self-selected few playing that CAPS thing. (Nor am I looking for evidence.)>>>
There's over 70K players in the competition and I didn't post the link until someone here remembered I posted it a while ago to shut some dope taking personal shots at me up and asked me to post it again. I didn't try to make it an issue you did. I just made a case that there's an opportunity in todays sell off.
You're the one posting your game record, not me. I'm telling you what that's worth. As far as I could tell you weren't blowing out numbers. So yes, it really does come down to money management. And there's no evidence your portfolio reflects your success against the self-selected few playing that CAPS thing. (Nor am I looking for evidence.)
Doesn't mean you're not doing well for yourself. I'd give better than even money you're OK. But there's no actual evidence you're better than a dartboard, especially given that most people aren't - including some of the best compensated managers in the business. You clearly haven't gotten a handle on the social networking sector, but you're hardly alone.
But 99.99999% - that's right, seven nines - of the people seeking out stock advice on a Yahoo board are doing it wrong. They might as well take advice from a bird on their lawn. And a bunch of them might.
<<<Being able to make a call on a stock is only the beginning. It's about money and risk management, and that contest has none of that.>>>
True but do you really think someone intelligent enough to understand how to value stocks and consistently pick winners and losers doesn't understand asset allocation? You are right that the game doesn't prove I understand how to allocate money it just proves I understand how to pick stocks to buy and short but that doesn't mean I don't understand asset allocation and it's a pretty good bet that I at least have a clue about asett allocation if I excell at stock picking. In the end my guess is most on this forum are interested in whether Zynga is a buy sell or hold and why.
Punch - You just went up against a guy who posted six years of his calls and was in the 1%. I am not saying he is the end all to investing and that we should follow him. I am saying he has some data to back up his credibility and I think that deserves something.
I think at this point - you are best to leave this alone as there is nothing you can say on a msg board that is going to dig you out of this one. I am not saying you are not a good investor or that you do not have good advice...I am only saying that you should not try and discredit someone who has posted 6 years of their stock picking of which the results proved to be very impressive.
If this is what you consider DD, no wonder you're long Zynga. Cripes.
I don't even know who the regulars are here, let alone any of the other crap you just spewed. I'm not going to waste my time posting freebies for the masses. What would that prove? Absolutely nothing. It won't improve my scorecard one iota. But at least "theinvestorgator" would be satisfied. Why on earth would I care about that?
Being able to make a call on a stock is only the beginning. It's about money and risk management, and that contest has none of that.
When you've got a little nut and you're making stupid moves like laying half on one stock and you get it wrong, the fact that you picked 9 other great stocks is meaningless. Capiche? Likewise, when you're staring at your wee pile of cash and you keep it 90% in cash because you don't have the stones to follow up on your homework, it's just as meaningless. And the world is absolutely filled with the both types. Hell, it relies on those chumps.
Question. I guess the third time's a charm for this board in finding some cool analysis. Yours. Thank you. I understand that the CEO and gang had a major sell off a long time ago at the beginning of the death dive. Go figure, right? Maybe a buy-back will come later. But as of now I see no signs that the insiders are rushing to buy the company they know way better than us. Is there really any race to buy shares of a company before the insiders themselves demonstrate with their own money they believe in it?
I don't beleive in making short term calls and I'm not making one. All I'm saying is that at some point smart people are going to notice that this thing is trading like a distressed company and it's not. I don't know exactly when it will happen or if there is another leg down before it happens but there's a whole lot of upside between distressed company value and even just an average company valuation and I'm willing to wait. There may be room for debate about whether this is still a high growth company or not but it's at least an average growth story, probably still a high growth story as well. It's being priced like it's going to shrink.