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Prosperity Bancshares Inc. Message Board

  • poorboy7 poorboy7 Nov 7, 1998 5:27 PM Flag

    hey gwynnj

    As one who reads this board quite often, I
    noticed you seem to have a pretty good knowledge of
    investing in the latin america region (along with a few
    others such as gregofuse) I was wondering if you would
    be willing to give me your opinion on this stock in
    the short term? For instance it seems most of the
    markets have recently rebounded somewhat, yet PB seems to
    have remained stuck around the low 20's high teens.
    I've bought this stock for a long term play however, I
    was curious on your opinion (along with others) on
    the short term outlook. Any comments, opinions would
    be appreciated. Poorboy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I generally don't give advice or make
      predictions. And I certainly don't qualify as an expert on
      investing in the region. I simply let people know my
      thoughts, actions, and positions.

      Personally, I
      think the international investment community has
      over-reacted to perceived risks in Latin America. But that
      doesn't mean that there aren't genuine fundamental risks
      in each of the PB operating countries, exacerbated
      by volatile foreign exchange markets.

      I don't
      think these risks will evaporate or resolve themselves
      in the short term. I do think the picture should be
      clearer, and more positive several months out (let's say
      Feb-Mar). I think the upside for PB is significantly more
      than the downside in the mid-term to long-term. In the
      very short-term, the downside risk and upside
      potential are probably closer to even, IMHO. Recall that we
      are over 40% up off recent lows; so I suspect we are
      in a period of consolidation in the low 20s, which
      seems reasonable.

      I continue to be comfortable
      with my relatively large long-term PB holding, along
      with a substantial speculative PB holding.

      • 2 Replies to gwynnj
      • Long time no see. :-)

        I see the
        predictions I made about PB's near-term outlook four months
        ago were pretty much on target. You could have made a
        killing buying U.S. small caps (esp. tech/biotech) in
        early October; maybe you did with some of your other
        money. Or, you could have picked up CSCO for 49. :-)

        Why are you so still attached to PB?

      • Brazil may devalue it's currency, Venezuela may
        elect a communist as President, Honduras and Nicaragua
        have been devastated by Mitch. The sun no longer
        shines south of the boarder, the end is near. This is
        the perfect time to buy stock in this region. The
        valuations are at all time lows. Markets have lost 80% of
        their values. To buy in this climate is not for the
        weak of heart. But for the brave who step into the pit
        there will be great rewards. Buy and Hold the sun will
        come out tomorrow.

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