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Frontier Communications Corporation Message Board

  • mt_lassen mt_lassen Jun 20, 2013 1:50 PM Flag

    Rotation from seculars to cyclicals

    Rotation from seculars to cyclicals has begun and will intensify as interest rates rise, and with improved business performance of cyclicals.

    All telecom stocks will suffer price depreciation, especially FTR.

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    • FTR is UP 17% since 6/20.

    • A good insight--sorry I did not see it in June. This goes along with the part of the economic cylce with consumer sentiment rising. With high sentiment, the lowish P/E of certain cyclicals starts to be seen as a sign of missed economic value, ready to be recognized. With low sentiment earlier (too many scared people), the reverse happened, lowish P/Es were thought to represent danger.

      Lots of money flowed from bonds to stocks about the time Japan took down their yen. Still looking for safety and high yields at first, people leaving the yen and gold and bonds piled money into staples, utilities, high-div seculars, raising their P/Es too high.

      In contrast, cyclical companies have accumulated cash, dealt well with debt, are back to nice dividends, proving lessons learned, increasing safety. Their lowish P/Es will often do well at this stage in the economic cycle.

      PLUS, this cycle may differ from others of the past two decades. We may be seeing moderate growth that's sustainable. I'm tired of the short-term boomtime, too-fast-growth stuff that always leads to quickly to an even faster bust.

      JB, Shaggy's mom (from Ford & Vivus Boards, can't tell what board I'm at now).

5.20+0.11(+2.16%)Jul 29 4:00 PMEDT