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Gilead Sciences Inc. Message Board

  • kcchris kcchris Mar 7, 1999 12:43 PM Flag

    Final thoughts on a buyout.

    After a week of thought about the boyout I think
    I will vote no with my few thousand shares. I know
    that my vote won't matter but I tend to agree with

    We paid $19 dollars a share for nxtr now.
    But when one year from now the price of Gilead stock
    has doubled to 100 the amount paid for the company
    will really be 38 dollars a share. I think we should
    have waited for all the good news to come out and then
    buy this company.

    The 2 NDA's, HBV study well
    under way and very positive PMPA data by the fall. I
    believe the stock will be 70 or more this fall. We most
    likely could pick this company up for $20 share in the
    fall too. Then we could still use their European sales
    force and not dilute the stock.

    I would even
    prefer to set up our own sales force in Europe and then
    buy the company.

    I will be watching the
    information that comes out from the upcoming conference
    relating to NXTR products. The only way I feel this is a
    good deal for GILD is if the NXTR pipeline has
    potential sales of over $1 billion a year. I don't see that
    right now but I may change my mind after the upcoming
    conference. If the NXTR shareholders get 1/3 of the total
    shares they should produce 1/3 of the future revenues. I
    believe Gilead will have over $2 billion in sales within
    4 years.

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    • Anyone who has been reading my stuff for the last
      year knows that. But when someone starts shooting
      insults at specific individuals it requires a respond. If
      you look at my initial posts after the merger I
      believe I said welcome and explained our company for the
      new posters. Then Gene felt the need to start a war.
      I believe respect for others is the route we should
      take. I will no longer post any negative coments
      towards anyone. I am sorry. I lost my mind for a while

    • 1. My vote will be "NO". May your shares, my
      10,000 share, plus some other will kill this buyout. To
      get no-good sales force in Europe for $500M?

      2. No to your sale projections (for 2002).
      Proveon -- sale ~$200M (may be by 2002 and 50M shares)or
      $4 per share in sale. If we assume a profit margin
      of 60% then earnings will be $2.4 per share (not
      bad!!)Remember that 3TC after 4 yrs and being a "gold standard"
      has sale of $850M;
      * Flu pills -- sale ~$250M,
      20% profit, then - $1 per share;
      * Hep B --
      Assuming PH III is over by 2001 and approval by 2002, then
      by 2002 we got the potential but no money yet!;

      * PMPA the same as Hep B (if we are very

      Summary -- Gild does not need NXTR
      * Total sale - $400M to $500M
      * Earning per
      share - $3 to $4.5
      * With NXTR we get very marginal
      sale force & product line. Too many problems for too
      much money!!!

      • 1 Reply to pharmainvestor11
      • You guys are obviously much smarter than GILD
        management! Either stand behind managemnents decision or SELL
        if it pains you so much about their NXTR
        decision.Just wait a while until they make it more clear to you
        why they wanted them. (Take a chill pill) Is the NXTR
        decision the only thing they've done you disagree

        Or is it that genebrn has gotten under your skin? I
        believe that is precisely the case. I've read his posts
        on the NXTR bb and his insight and humor is much
        preferred to your negative whining and inability to
        communicate/articulate your postion as effectively. He's got your
        numbers and you can't beat him, so join him.

        prediction. GILD to be purchased within 2 years. Good luck to

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