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Cymer Inc. Message Board

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  • dcxavier dcxavier Mar 12, 2001 4:01 PM Flag

    NAZ Recovery! How long?

    But I sunk a lot of my free cash into the market in the final ten minutes today. I have about a one day time horizon and tight stops on the positions, which will creep up if the market rises tomorrow. May be some short covering coming up.

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    • but on a day like today its worth repeating some positive information:

      MSDW Lowers Estimates:
      Revenue estimates lowered to 324.1 and 390.6 million for 2001 and 2002 respectively. New per share estimates $0.85 and $1.40 for 2001 and 2002.
      Maintain Outperform rating and $40 Target: We continue to believe that Cymer will have one of the best revenue growth rates in our space over the next several years, consequently, we are maintaining our Outperform rating and $40 target.

      Although we are lowering our estimates for Cymer, we continue to believe that the company is solidly positioned in the laser market. As articulated in our "ASP Angle" investment thesis, we believe lithography related equipment and inspection/metrology tools will have the best ASP (average selling price) progressions in the industry over the next several years. Cymer's lasers are currently used in more than 80% of all DUV lithography tools, and we believe Cymer can maintain its market share position in the growing DUV lithography market.

      DUV lithography tools currently make up around 40% of the total lithography market (the rest is i-line based tools). However as chipmakers transition to 0.10 micron and smaller geometries over the next several years, the DUV market will likely grow to at least 80% to 90% of the market as it replaces i-line based tools. Consequently, Cymer's served market will increase substantially and we believe the company will have one of the fastest revenue growth profiles in our industry over the next several years.
      Sony Playstation to move to .13u process.
      The move to smaller geometries is inexorable, and Cymer lasers will be the light source of choice.

      Yup, you read right. Sony and Toshiba will be moving to a 0.13 micron process for the Emotion Engine and Graphics Synth. What does this mean for you? Well, for one it'll mean that PS2 prices will go down as they'll be able to produce more chips at less cost. The other thing that it'll mean is that Sony can increase the clock speeds of the two chips, meaning that workstations and such based on them will be more powerful. If you'll recall my editorial on Sony's decision to "open" the PS2, then you know what I'm talking about when I speak of EE + GS-based workstations. Here's a part of the editorial that relates to the latest process shrink:

      Both the EE and GS are currently made on a 0.25� CMOS process. When Sony moves to a 0.18� process the first thing that'll happen is that they'll be able to sell both parts at higher clock speeds and/or lower wattages. Right now, for instance, the EE runs at 300MHz and dissipates an average of 18W. Once the feature size shrinks to 0.18�, they'll be able to sell the EE at higher clock speeds, targeting it at the server and workstation markets. Or, they could sell it at lower clock speeds and with less power consumption and target it at the embedded market.

      Another possible way that Sony could exploit the shrink in process size would be to add more cache to the EE or more VRAM to the GS. Sony actually mentioned the latter option explicitly in the EET coverage. The GS's 4MB of VRAM is embedded on the die, giving it an insane bandwidth of 48.6 GB/sec. Sony can spend more transistors and crank up the VRAM size to 32MB, giving the GS some serious memory to go along with all that bandwidth. As the EET notes, this will allow the GS to crank out the ever higher resolutions needed in the graphics workstation market.

      I think that the reason none of my predictions of workstations and embedded systems based on the EE and GS have come true yet is that Sony can't even meet the demand for PS2's, much less develop and supply a whole new market for PS2 technology. Perhaps this process yield will be what they need to take things to the next level. -Hannibal

    • More butchering today. Support for the Dow is at 9975. NAZ has support at 1872. The upside is that there are 2 gaps one at 2041 and the other at 2161.Could see a feable attempt at a rally
      maybe to 2041.

      CYMI looks like it will test support 18 1/4. If this gets taken out, 15 3/4 to 16-1/2 is next support.

      Yep Viper, I remember those good ol' days. I believe it may have something in part to reg FD. As I've been saying, the market can't handle the truth. God knows what's going on in the Fed's mind. They haven't been much help.

      It's like falling when your in the shower and there's nothing to grab but the water.

      • 1 Reply to Uvalde_Slim
      • Was thinking about to today, thx for mentioning it reg. FD is proably causeing more problems than it should, I say Abloish reg. FD for 2-3 quarters so I can dump all this shit I own!!!.....just kiddin...the playing is been leveled, now as investors we REALLY need to do our homework. Just got off the phone with my CPA & he likes ATT & WCOM...thinks there going lower 12-14 range. He sold all his stocks back in March of 00!! Says if they get down in that area.....he's Buying big time...(Broadband) opprutuintys is what he likes....Long term. Sort of thru me accually....maybe on to something?!

        SNO...thx again 911...I thank god your on this board! Love your positive attitude!