Yes laws politics and economics will continue to drive NG as a transportation fuel. I am one of the biggest WPRT bulls but no Diesel is not dead and will continue to hold market share for 15-20years to come. However NG could easily be 10-20% of the market in 5-10 years and that would make WPRT huge.
People see WPRT like a small CMI or CAT. It is not. It is more like MSFT. The have a platform that everyone can use. They market it this way so as the business grows in trucking, marine, rail, mining etc. WPRT gets a piece of it all worldwide. This means that WPRT can be bigger than CMI or CAT in the long term as the model is brilliant. They looked at the ROI and realized that if they price correctly they can invest in R&D and make it more profitable for a producer to sign with them than to develop the technology on thier own. Yes I know CMI is designing thier own offering but WPRT did not see this as a threat or a good ROI and choose not to participate. (Yes they were asked via the contract trhey have)
This will take time and there wil be a balance but when it goes it will be very fast for WPRT and losses will become big profits very quickly. WPRT is about 18months from having most of thier l;ines in commercial production; many are not right now. This transition will then have to go through the initial adoption. With that said in 6-12 months many investors and analysts will start to see this occuring and hte stock will benefit. Right now the shorts own this and most can not see the future, as evidenced by some of the moronic posts you see here. Some of the comments re buyouts, feasibility, economics etc are based in ignorance. It is clear that billions have already been invested by companies like Shell, CHK, Clean Energy, and many other companies. Not to mention the buyin from CAT, CMI, Volvo, TATA, Weichei, EMD, etc. The reality is not if this is happening but how fast will it happen. With almost 100% of the leaders buying in this will happen. You do not see billions invested by multiple companies across world markets be wrong. There is no eveidence that WPRT will fail at this point. The IP is way too large and the contracts with companies like Weichei are signed for more than 28 years, others have 10+ year contracts. In otherwords WPRT is perfectly setup for a trillion dollar market across all platforms. (Trucking, Light Duty, Rail, Marine, Mining etc.) Yes the market is that big and WPRT only needs to capture a very small percentage to make considerable profits. With about a 60 million share float and potential sales in tyhe range of 2-5billion in 3 years from now the company could easily make $10+ a share in 2015 with a massive growth rate. Yes this may take a little longer but so many forget to factor how big rail and mining can be and these are not even in commercial production. Long haul Trucking alone is just coming online now in the US and China. The sales to date are almost all medium duty garbage trucks and busses.
The stock will be volatile and yes it could go down to $24 or up to $40 and I have no idea what will happenin the short term. but in the long term the path is up and steep and with the short float when the stock does go it will be stepp and fast.
Good post. I generally agree except I don't think they'll hit 2 billion in sales by 2015 AND I'm not saying diesel wont be around, I'm saying it's a bad investment. When earnings are reported, I am more interested in projected revenue increases this and next year. Earnings are effected by build-out and early stages and less important to me. With respect to price the stock could go down but more likely go up in the near term as news should be generaly positive as NG conversion progresses.