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Alkermes plc Message Board

  • kyw3_2001 kyw3_2001 Oct 7, 2010 12:27 AM Flag

    believe or not

    95% of chance Vivitrol will be approved on the 12th Oct.The price will be no less than $17.50.
    80% of chance Bydureon will be approved on the 22nd Oct. The price should be traded between
    $20.00 to $21.00.

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    • I rarely trade Biotech's because of their "binary" nature but ALKS has been a great one for me so far. Can I ask you how you are forecasting the two price moves? Is this standard in the Biotech space...they will make a move after the first approval and then a second move after the second approval? I've just seen a few people here explaining an increase in price in two "separate" moves contingent upon the two approvals coming up in October...just curious and thanks for your posts.

      ALKS looks like it is just getting started...and could be a bigger winner for 2010 AND 2011!!!

      • 1 Reply to jmbcapital
      • Be careful listening to price "forecasts" from other shareholders. Usually, they can only see in one direction - UP, and up as high as the eye can see. This is called "Confirmation Bias" Try to ignore price targets from other shareholders, do your own DD, look at the charts and be objective. The market is going to give you what it feels like giving you, regardless of your target - even targets from analysts. A few months back a study was shown that stocks rated a "sell" were outperforming stocks rated "buy". From my experience with this type of FDA play - the stock doesn't go very high on approval, because the market has been pricing it in (up 69% on the year), but you'll still make money. Do your DD on other charts of other FDA plays that had such a high chance of approval - I bet you'll be shocked as to what you'll find. Ones that come to mind right away are the FDA approvals of Onsolis, Trazodone, Pennsaid, Zevalin. Good luck to all!

    • The stock price is already assuming approval. It wont move when it happens.

    • Absoultely low on those numbers. Double them, for sure.

    • I'm NOT sure if I understand your logic behind your numbers, but I hope your RIGHT ON. This stock looks like it's ready to take off, and if anyone is short this one, I would lining up my buy orders before I lost another 30%.

      There are a lot of very good things going on with this company and it's finally getting priced into the stock...NEW 52 WEEK HIGH TODAY!!! It's these type of companies that I love holding in my portfolio...profitable trades with companies that truly help the human experience.

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