SIRIUS VALUED AT $1.43
My new updated DD. April 10, 2005
Please do your own research into this and see for yourself, There alot of pumpers here, who will lie to you. "Facts" is what you want and not BS. Pumpers will have a positive spin to everything but will not deal with these facts.
Sirius Market Cap: 7.14B / Shares Outstanding 1.32B / PPS 5.41 / 1.1 million Subs /
XM Market Cap: 6.47B / Shares Outstanding 210.94M / PPS 30.67 / 3.77 million Subs /
Sirius has about 6/1 the shares of what XM has and 1/3 subs but yet thier mkt cap is higher than XM, Why? What justify this?
Lets do a little figuring on what sirius price should be at,
Today value After April 2, XM shares divided by 6.25 (Sirius shares now) = $4.90. Sirius no longer gets 30% more revenue for each sub than Xm. + 0% = $4.90. now divided by 3.42 (subs) = $1.43
Remember, XM & Sirius need subscribers, Thats what bring in the money. What else does Sirius has that makes it worth its present price? Stern? Not Until he bring in the subs.
Remember, Technical are a very important part of any shock. Anyone that says otherwise is bull
Just my oppinion
Sir, it is not my desire to simplify the
matter it is my desire to expose the simplity
of SIRIUS_DAYTRADER's original post (1739437).
If you read his post (with he repeats every
Sat) and my reply you will see where this
started. He trys to forge a constant out
of a variable and does so week after week in
apparrent disregard to mathematical rigor.
>> Subscriber numbers are only one variable in a much larger equation.
I agree, and ad revenues on some of the talk channels, cumulative subscriber retention, and coming payments from other hardware manufacturers (of iPod devices, mainly for the privilege of having Sirius on their devices), and Howard's arrival revenues also enter into the larger equation.
Just like I told you yesterday, Stock price is forward looking. Sometimes 1-2 years. Add in Howards subs, canadas sub, oems, and others. There is a reason Sirius said it plans to have 7 million receivers made in 2005. Quit posting the same dumb message every day. I'm looking forward to you losing your shorts, shorty.
If there were no operating costs for either firm, your numbers might make sense.
If you didn't strike a blow for STERN to the tune of about 33%, you missed the boat.
If you didn't crank in Mels hardware giveaway to get more subs, so his ads could cost more on those stations that carry ads, you missed a third of the current value.
At $5.95 this stock is fully valued now.
I did my own "research" on your DD and came up with the answer that your are kind of dumb!
First you assume that XM is "right priced" at $30.73 and that SIRI should be a factor(6.25) of that price. You then compound your error by assuming that price should be a factor of sub numbers(3.42) There is no linear correlation between sub numbers and price. XM had 500 subs on 9/30/01 with a price of $6.04. Since they now have 3,770,000 subs, an increase by a factor of 7540 the price of MX should be $45541.60 a share! What you call "research" is mathematical (arithmetic,really) nonsence!
If you assume XM rightly priced, then you CAN do a relative analysis.
If you assume DIRI rightly priced, then you CAN do a relative analysis.
The assumption that is flawed is right pricing, but given that assumption, some number drills actually make sense.
Technical are a very important part of any shock. Anyone that says otherwise is a stupid idiot. Hard too believe some people can be so stupid. Now go do some real reseach stupid and come back and tell us what sirius is worth!