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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • lonerangercards lonerangercards Dec 12, 2012 3:44 PM Flag

    Do We Always Assume Shorts Don't Know Nothing!!??

    It seems we do for SIRI anymore. Why would big shorts increase their stakes here? What else is going on. Does the article "How many Sirius XM shares will Liberty Sell" say anything significant.
    Just seems like professional shorts do their hone work and you can't just take it do lightly. We'll see. LR

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    • You might "know nothing" - It really should be they don't know ANYTHING! Go back and finish High School please...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • LR -

      While the Bears always deserve sentiment respect, they have been wrong on SIRI since it was trading for a buck in 2010. So how much Street Cred do they get for being on the wrong side of the trade for 2.5 years. It's just too easy to be a PermaBear in today's world anymore. All you need to do is say that the sky will fall one day in the future. Tell me something I don't know. World economies are cyclical so this is no secret. But when it does begin its inevitable cyclical decline, you need only say I told you so. Markets fall faster than they go up. In this game, you're only as good as your next call. So until the SIRI Bears get that next call right, they are in the Penalty Box in my book.

      I don't know about you but I've been Long in the face of quite a few High SI positions over the years. Doesn't bother me one bit when I believe I'm right. Some of my most successful Longs have come against heavy SI. SIRI's short position isn't even all that high relative to some of the positions I've bet against and won. If I believe I am right, I see them as nothing more than guaranteed buyers. I can only go to 0. They can lose infinitely so they better hope they are right. Smart shorts are hedged so it doesn't much matter. But even since the 2008/09 washout, we still have too many Funds out there and not enough smart people running them. Don't sell yourself short.

      • 2 Replies to wwtimewarp2000
      • Hey WWT

        "So until the SIRI Bears get that next call right, they are in the Penalty Box in my book."
        Very good call! I did not expect that market reaction to Fridays Royalty decision. I have just been watching it and not liking the way it was going but now I may go long.

        This Cliff-toyd market does not encourage me but eventually they will work it out.

        Where has Duke gone lately. Would like to hear his take.

      • WWT, thanks for your thoughts. I may be getting overly bearish here. Do they work out the fiscal cliff stuff that we have all heard way toooo much about and could they dramatize any more than they do? Yes. Do they do it by 12/31? That I am not too sure of, and can see it miss that stupid deadline they created. Does it get resolved in a way most can accept? Probably not altogether. At some point some real fiscal spending cuts need to actually be made. I think most people can understand that as well. I’m not jumping off any cliff if I need to work a year or two longer than I thought also. Maybe shorts are just figuring if AAPL lost over 20% in two months or less and if 16 out of the top 20 S&P 500 stocks have gone down in the last six weeks than SIRI deserves more of hit.

        Still the obvious thing is in front of my face is that the market has not really tanked. Just got a somewhat post election carpet shock. And SIRI really hasn’t tanked either...but did close that 2.58 gap. I do get concerned about slower world growth but that does not necessarily mean No world growth or negative world growth so I’ll keep an open mind. Thanks for reminding me to. LR

    • I'm not shorting this thing either but it just doesn't add with straight or boolean math.

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