I do that's why I came up with 1.05 while they had 1.20. I was also closer to the numbers over the past year. Do I think they know what they're doing, no + the proof is always in the numbers. Why do over 65% of the companies beat estimates because its a shell game + they're moving the shells. They can't predict crude prices today let alone 2 years from now. Look at earnings for the 1st, 2nd and the year, they're all up again and yet the stock price went down. Before its all said + done they will be well over 5/share for the year, another 1BB in net profit.
As for the political drivel, sorry but it is what I believe. Maybe I did paint an extreme but the general thrust is there. We can all be naive but the fact is obama did push cap + trade + backed off for political back lash. Once he gets reelected he won't care about back lash + we will see some form of it one way or another. That will have a major impact on refiner's, to what degree we'll just have to wait + see. Using ethanol is another example of a failed policy. The only losers are us. We lose cheap corn that costs as much to produce as it saves in energy. Solar, based on its own merits oil will need to quadruple to make it viable. Will all this happen over night no. Will it happen within 4 years, possible.