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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

  • precaud precaud May 7, 2012 10:46 PM Flag

    A rant and a prediction

    The rant:
    Did you catch the CNBC interview with oil trader Mark Fisher today? When asked why crude had been selling off the last few days, he answered "I don't know, it should be trading higher but it's not, so we'll have to wait until the dust settles to find out why".

    Are you kidding? This guy is a professional oil trader and this is the best he can come up with? The only thing he pays attention to is price movement and support levels. What an idiot. And he is one of the better guys in the CME oil trading pits. I am totally in favor of putting position limits on folks like him, who never take delivery and bring no added value to the equation. It's a shame that CNBC makes these scalpers look like "professionals". There is nothing that they do that is worthy of that.

    The prediction: Barring some catastrophe (weather,political,etc), I think we've seen the highs of the year for WTI. The rise in Bakken sweet caused by the syncrude upgrader going down doesn't change oil consumption rate, it only shifts the mix temporarily toward heavy crudes, and at a time of year when refineries are willing to run a heavier slate, take the discount, and make more asphalt and other resid products.

    Bakken sweet, which traded WTI + $1 on Friday, backed off to WTI - $1 today. WCS also settled back to WTI - $15, and I bet we see it go lower shortly.

    I think we're heading toward an oil glut of epic proportions in the rockies and midcon, and the area refiners are in the driver's seat. Just as HFC is locking in some future margins, inland producers want to lock in supply takeaway. They see what's happening. New drilling permits at a record rate, yet production already exceeds takeaway.

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    • I agree but the information on the FDA site pointed to them giving tacit approval prior to the adcom meeting. It will get approved with a follow up study on heart valve potential issues. They did present studies that showed it working in only one receptor site and not the one that would cause heart valve failure but some on the committee who spoke out of their expertice wouldn't let it go, Kaul who happened to vote approval for VVUS the main characther. Jeez, I wonder if he has VVUS stock. Qnexa was used in conjunction with phen to increase its efficacy which alone should give the FDA pause as Lorc was tested on its own.

    • TSO getting the big bid today with the upgrade, now up over 5%, unfortunately HFC is the laggard.

    • The inland heavy/sours lost more ground today, WCS at -16 and WTS at -5.50...

      • 1 Reply to precaud
      • Cushing inventory at a new high... total US inventories at the highest level since 1990... and more ground lost for the inland crudes today... Brent-WTI now 16.44... and as predicted, WCS lost bigtime, WTI-18.75... WTS to -5.90... Bakken sweet to -1.90 .

        Gas inventories down in the MW and at a new low in the RM... up in the GC. Diesel inventories down everywhere except the GC.

    • as others run from hfc , we just keep adding not that the bottom line ...... Just stay within your own diversity limits and keep buying everytime it goes down another next buys are already programed in..... Next up.....28.29 for me ...... Then 27.11.

      Your math makes sense ....and it will pay out by this Fall. The only killer is the world economy boogeyman ....but that takes everything down ...can not worry about that ....



      • 2 Replies to ah673000
      • Well you got your 28.29.
        Hope you don't get the 27.11.

        The earnings miss looks like the extended 2 weeks in dorado, + the outages at wyoming + Tulsa, hard to see the Q's projections when the company doesn't post anything about maint or outages, unlike the majority in the group that do. Cash went up 100MM after paying out the special + reg divvy + stock buy backs. Net debt also rose by 100MM ala HEP.
        The scary part is they still have almost 300MM capex to spend + the bulk of the turnarounds scheduled for the Q3/4 period. That's a lot of time off line as they only spent 52MM capex in the 1st Q. Never even mentioned navajo + no one asked.

        Pre, back in the day I don't remember FTO missing a turnaround.

      • AH, yes, that is the bottom line.

        I read last night that the Permian and Eagle Ford could actually outpace the Bakken in production growth over the next two years. That hasn't been a factor in any of the big-picture analysis I've seen.

        One would think that the drillers stocks would be rocking, but they're all down 20+% too.

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