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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

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  • ah673000 ah673000 May 15, 2012 6:44 PM Flag

    AH congrats on your last purchase

    Mario....I stopped trading last Tuesday nite ..... Was tempted to reload hfc, but decided to stay put .

    Tomorrow i will reload one load of xom ( sold at 86 average) .... Need to reload 4 loads .

    Vlo/ hfc are way to risky right now to trade...personally I think the odds are great that hey go to 19/ 25 based on a couple of theories I utilize .

    This looks like a classic falling knife to me . And there really is no catalyst to halt the fall .

    GL..... ( i really like hfc here..but the market is turning over ...i will wait )

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    • The entire market is in free fall. Two big reports today, both positive, stocks up on the news and now selling into it. I expect the market to be down big again today with another lte day swoon if not sooner. Now the worst thing you can say on the wall st floor isn't fire, its greece. Just mention the name + stocks drop 100 points.

      Inventory numbers positive for refiners with another weekly drop in gas/distillates yet these stocks trade like there is a huge glut of gas, cude is 150, cracks at 10 and the spread even.

      Cracks are up again today + the spread is now over 18. ND is now the 2nd largest crude producer at over 500k bbls/day + climbing. That 150K pipe reversal is like a gnat in comparison to expanding production in the midcon.

      • 3 Replies to mario_themario
      • As expected, the market is dropping at the close, 10/11 now + it will drop both days + be 12/13 by Fri close. Have to laugh, stocks down as europe weighs. Based on that headline and the fact greece won't be resolved or should I say we have some indication of what they + the EU will do, by late June, would imply stocks are headed lower for another 6 weeks, and I don't think that is so far fetched. The only thing that can be a catalyst for US stocks is the fed easing + that won't happen till mid June at the earliest. In the mean time, there are zero catalysts to move this market. Today we had 2 strong reports and the markets jumped + moved steadily lower, losing over 100 points from the early days highs.

        Oil is headed for 80 - 85 range. I think the Saudi's, less so with the other OPEC non-thinking members, have come to the realization that the US is sitting on large oil assets. The only way for them to play the game and ship crude to the US + be competitive is for crude to drop to 80, increasing the costs to produce in the US with fracking and them being able to make money, albeit less, than fracking costs + drilling.

        All in all, regardless of what the newsletters I get say, the underlying bull is dead. Unless something dramatic happens to stabilize the greek default, + they will default its just a matter of when, the PIIGS stabilize with some gov/ECB intervention, and China is able to show its not headed for a hard landing, then the markets will continue to drop. Look at gold. Jimmy Rogers says it maybe headed for a 40% hair cut. India has always been a big buyer with the major purchases around the sept time frame, some religious thing, + the gov is looking at banning gold imports to boost spending in the country as Indians prefer to buy + stick it in their closet, not conducive to aiding the economy.

        The markets are very complex + getting more so + the retail investor, us, have few to no tools needed to play this game. Look what happened to JPM + the have an army of people + were considered to be the best investment banker out there. Of course their stock loss has been mitigated because of their clout + it doesn't hurt that Obama has a major portion of his portfolio with them and came out in defense of them, how nice.

        Still waiting for the BOD to announce something. I think the stock move today was a precursor to the announcement based on the strong move up in a down market.

      • And Maria and the rest of the CNBC jokers just don't understand why the retail investor has not come back in to the mkts. LOL


      • And mt Wifes Mother has oil rights in the Bakken..Whoopie,,,Maybe

24.16+0.04(+0.17%)Jul 25 4:02 PMEDT