There are really a convergence of reasons that will drive this stock down well below 40 - before it rises again in late Q2:
1) massive Insider selling
2) The crack spread is narrowing and should remain narrow for awhile.
3) The large amount of upgrades to the Artesia facility may significantly reduce output, reduce revenue, increase costs. It is possible this upgrade cycle will need to extend to other facilities in 2013.
4) the reduction in free cash flow will place downward pressure on Sr. Management's ability to continue special dividends at the rate of the second half of 2012.
Conclusion - If you are a short term investor - there are better plays out there. But if you are in for the long haul the laws of supply and demand for refined crude remains strong.
Just too bad that the insiders do not have as much faith in the long haul as others - it would appear. I find the selling on the part of outside directors particularly disturbing - as they may be trading on Sr. Management plans and forecasts that were shared with outside board as part of the 2013 budget process and long range planning - as is the process with all corporations. Time for new outside board of directors?