That will impact RIN pricing which has already gone ballistic + IMO hasn't been fully included in most earnings for the pure refiner group. HFC doing what it always does, goes down significantly lower that the rest of the sector. Looking at earnings estimates + they really haven't come down that far in the last 30 days so does it reflect the impact of the unplanned outage and the latest pipeline leak? Add to that seasonality which this is one of the worst for the refiners. PSX was the best performer in the group, only down .01. I expect earnings estimates will come down for the remainder of the year for the sector. No one can predict hurricane issues, middle east crapola, etc. Still haven't dipped my toe in the water here, waiting. The price hasn't been this low since Nov. They close 2012 at 45.13 so they are down 9.8% while the overall market is up 10%, excluding divvies of 1.60 which reduces the drop to 6.2%. I always watch Jennings sales. He sold 100K shares at over 58/share. He's looking good now.
JP Morgan doesn't know squat about the oil business. All they see is the crack spread narrowing.HFC ALDW and other Midwest refineries are not paying WTI prices. They are paying Cushing and Midland prices. In some cases, they are buying oil before it even reaches a distribution point.There is and will remain lots of trapped oil in the Midwest.Oil production is increasing in all fields, faster than the pipelines can pump it.
JP Morgan's analyst dumped Carizzo just before it rocketed 50% over the next month in a call earlier this year...they hold little weight to me in regards to their oil analysis. On another note, there has been an oil pipeline issue with Enbridge in northern Alberta that is shutting down some of the oil sands flow. Again, this is overblown IMO, as the pipeline in Alberta is a short 11 mile track and affects other producers/refiners, yet the Enbridge Mainline is intact and Bakken crude is flowing. Note that Bakken and US sections of the Mainline are running at capacity last report.