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  • staff9128 staff9128 May 13, 2010 3:37 PM Flag

    QCOR- A Potential Short Sell On Expected FDA News

    I had no idea you were talking about such little money.

    Congratulations, you did very little research and came up with a scenario to make $5-10K. If you had looked a little further you would have learned that the company dipped to it's low when Vigabatrin became the only approved treatment for IS, at a time when Questcor only sold Acthar to treat IS. At the time the Black Box warning attached to Vigabatrin was also not widely understood.

    If Acthar for IS is denied, the stock is unlikely to dip to the previous low for two reasons: 1)The company now has a larger profit center in MS, NS and other more profitable indications. 2) We now know that doctors will continue to prescribe Achthar even without approval, as they have been doing for years. Since Vigabatrin has been on the market, sales for Achthar to treat IS have grown.

    By the way, you could risk the same $500 and buy the same amount of June $12.50 calls, which are trading at the same price as the puts you mentioned. When the stock goes to $16-$18 on approval, you stand to make $20-$24K. A much better return on a more likely event.

 
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