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  • maxdad01 maxdad01 Jan 20, 2013 12:00 PM Flag

    A confession from a dedicated LONG...

    I have to admit that the action over the past few weeks along with the relentless attacks from MF and other media sources gets disheartening as share price continues to languish in the mid-20's after a very constructive run from $17.25 to $30.25 give or take. However, as frustrating as this has been AND an expectation that the stock price would have begun to "grow into" the fundamentals, the share price IS TOTALLY DECOUPLED from those fundamentals. How many companies, in any industry, have sustained the kind of growth enjoyed by Questcor and retained a single digit price earnings ratio. Further, how many companies have announced new dividends, share buybacks AND a strategic (ACCRETIVE) acquisition and also saw no positive response to PPS?

    So what is so vexxing to myself and most of the longs here is how does this continue to occur in the face of such a compelling story and continued demonstration of a very potent future? And the answer is that it is entirely attributable to factors (yes Mikey, including technicals) that have nothing to do with the investment value of the company which remains unchanged. I do NOT want to avoid the "cliffs" associated with the investigation, AETNA's action and the potential of either further restrictions AND/OR competition...BUT there is absolutely NO EVIDENCE that any of these have strong long term staying power (though I guess any are still a possibility, albeit small both in terms of scope and probabilities in my opinion). As such, they just need to work their way through the maze of fear and emerging (AND SIGNIFICANT) opportunities for patient investors, of which I am certainly one.

    And all this should begin in a month or so when the light of day is finally re-shined on just how fast Questcor is growing top line, bottom line and particularly the growth of NON-IS indications. There are already powerful leading indicators of these in the rapid growth of Questcor's sales force and continued aggressive research into efficacy (SAFETY IS ALREADY A DECADES LONG PROVEN FACT) for these additional indications. As I have posted relentlessly I personally believe that Acthar for NS has such vast potential that it could literally dwarf all others by virtue of the size of population, the life-saving circumstances associated with Questcor's Rx for this indication AND the economics of the alternatives available. BUT Pharmaman has also made a very compelling case for other indications all of which have substantial populations as well.

    BUT MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...Questcor is currently barely in it's toddler stage of life having emerged from their infancy (albeit somewhat on in years from the companies origin, but NOT in the life of their rights in Acthar). And the overwhelming maturation of this company still has many years in front of it regardless of the end of their first round of Orphan status. (renewable by 2 seven year periods with approval by the FDA).

    So can things go wrong? Sure. Is it likely? I don't think it is likely at all, but certainly possible. Can things happen to destroy their "franchise"...sub-1%, but I think this is true of virtually every company if they've lived long enough.

    So my bottom line is...Yes what has happened thus far has been a bit frustrating, but to mix my own metaphors...We're only in the second inning entering the third. There is a much (MUCH) greater prospects (and evidence to support it) that this company has barely tapped its potential. And so in the battle between that highly probable scenario versus whatever the hell has been going on dating back to the first Citron raid I've put my money where my opinion is and have lost NO CONVICTION that a year, two, three from now that the price multiples over current price per share will be astronomical as look back stories will analyze how temporarily fear was induced and market orchestrations performed against all prevailing evidence of incredible successes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • repeat...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • well said maxdad!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • "(though I guess any are still a possibility, albeit small both in terms of scope and probabilities in my opinion)"

      "opinions" that problems are small won't propel it. The stock's gotten way ahead of itself several times and its Yo-Yo effect is a given, how can anyone trust that it would go up and not "Crash" and burn again at some least expected point, aye Bozz?

      • 2 Replies to nomadinx
      • Frankly NO OPINIONS HERE are likely to have any longer term material impact nor should they. The ONLY THING that will change the current action is continued stellar results AND my OPINION is that is EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN!!! As for your "how can you trust it to NOT crash" is about the same as how one could trust any given plane to NOT crash. It certainly can but the probabilities (just like with Questcor) are very much against that happening. YOUR POINT BOZZ is about as ridiculous as every other one I have seen from while I took a second to see what you had to say about this thread, you're back on ignore where you belong!!!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Nomad...Good point...agree!

    • using a peg ratio formula ......easy 8 bagger from here to fair value if QCOR ever gets fair valuation....

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to lonewolf659
      • Sweet spot long gone, Gain 27,952% between 2007 Low and 2012 High, a 279-Bagga or an average of 5,590% per year, just pukes gutz now, aye Bozz? lol

      • Max:

        I am going to take a stab at this from a "small investor's" point of view.

        I read almost every post on this Board. I come up with the same numbers as most of the other long term (or dedicated long) holders of Qcor. By all metrics this stock is way undervalued. Everyone knows that. The long term outlook for Qcor appears to be good, one would think.

        The situation as I see it, right or wrong, is that small guys like myself are out and watching this stock very carefully, looking for that day that management will come out with something positive regarding Qcor and create a short squeeze. People like myself are so sick of hearing nothing but negative news, which is mostly BS but nonetheless it affects the small guy like myself. Especially if they have a profit in their position. The BIG boy's know this.

        The short interest fell about 1 million shares as of 12/31/12 which doesn't mean much to me because I "feel" like others here that most of the short positions are held by the Institutions.

        It's just my opinion but I think the a lot of the small longs (without conviction) are tired and have moved on temporarily. One could argue that these small guys aren't that important anyway and that may be right.

        You don't hear many comments on the board anymore about people buying/ adding, except from people like Pharmaman, Mclim, yourself, and maybe a few others.

        I think most of the Institutions are buying the bulk of the stock and accumulating it, which, I would think, would be a positive for Qcor in the future. They have a lot of patience and just set their computer programs where they want them and go on. Most of the small guys are losing patience, for whatever reasons, and are not going to take a chance given the way the markets are manipulated. Yes there are many like yourself, and others here, that don't pay attention to the day to day noise.

        Another thing is all the negative BS from M Foolish, and others. Also, just the other night that dimwit Cramer mentioned on his show to stay away from Qcor. Said it was a "Battleground" stock. Now you and I know about Cramer but you can't take away the fact that many people follow him, for whatever reason, and are influenced by him. If you don't think so just take a look some night at a stock he is pumping and watch it go up on your trading screen.

        To be honest with you I have no idea what the price of Qcor will be in 6 months. I know what it should be, but in this environment, we really have no idea, at least I don't.

        I could go on and on but I won't. Just giving you what is going on in my mind, and gut, about Qcor. Take it for what it's worth, probably not much, but that is my feelings and probably a lot of others.