26.3 - yummy
was contemplating calls and still might but for now went with some shares
love the accumulation in 25-26 range over last few wks
big earnings coming - yes sireee
maybe even $35
actually on feb 4 i said "maybe even 35" by eps release
as today i said wont close over 33 before eps release so i will stick with that latter
that said wouldnt surpirse me if got to 35 (200 dy) before release
but i will stick with a 32-33 close
Here's my take on ER for what it's worth. The below discussions about traditional valuations are good yet have been ignored by the street. It would appear that the earnings gained from non IS scripts will be treated as one time gains and not sustainable due to the risk that insurance won't cover or maybe at least not at the retail price quoted today. Additionally, the Feds may clamp down on non IS use (or at least the sales pitch for it) until qcor publishes extensive clinical studies of non IS efficacy. Just my layman's view of the bear argument.
However, we have seen positive news from some insurance companies that they will cover and the leagal judgement regarding sales pitches as freedom of speech. All good which is why I've stayed long even though the trader in me wants to move on. I stick around though with a near six figure investment waiting for the rocket ride when the huge short position gets spooked ala Netflix. Maybe when the feds close up or the company announces amazing MS or NS results from real doctors in the field over a large patient group. Till then, I think that actual dollars earned will be secondary and unimpressive to the street..or maybe not. We'll see in a couple of weeks I guess. I still hope management is thinking the same and will distribute cash with larger or special dividend which could also move a lot of "under $30" shorts to cover. The End.
RESPONDING TO YOUR MOST RECENT POST---Good post...&&& while we do agree in the future we disagree about degree. My point is far simpler than yours...IF as I believe (NOTE "IF") Questcor does $5.00 or better in 2013, then even with the current outstanding issues taken no further than they are today the stock price should command a 20+ P/E or $100 per share AND I believe substantially more than that based on growth achieved. Conversely, if they were to fall far short of that (e.g., $4.00 EPS in 2013) then I think a P/E of 15-20X would be more in line and closer to your estimates. I disagree with your earning forecasts which is what leads me to also disagree with your P/E estimates. It's that simple. But even if you're totally right and I am totally wrong, Questcor still represents one of the most undervalued stocks available in the market today...something I know we both violently agree on :-)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
ok - thx for compliment
i may have been a bit harsh calling your targets rediculous but i just cant phathom them
good pt about a higher pe if eps is 5 vs low 4s as p/e is of course a function of many variables but the 2 biggies are growth rate and risk and so even if risk stays same yet 5 eps happens over low 4s then that is higher growth and a higher pe (in theory that is) so ya my pe range could rise to 15 -18 based on that so then use say 17 pe x 5 eps = $85 - that is best case for me but more probable in my eyes is the low 4s eps x 12-15 pe = $60
yes we can both agree that qcor is very undervalued and lets hope at least one of us is right as that means qcor will be at the least $60 come year end
again that is in theory, but i have a feeling even with continuing strong fundies, that the stock could have a hard time shaking off this latest face ripping ( 60 to 17) and why $50 year end target is likely more realistic and heh i would still be thrilled with that (100% gain !!) lets not get too greedy right.
ok, im getting carpel tunnel here
'i actually bought rimm at 8 and sold at 17 and then re bought at 13 so again not sure what makes u think i am short rimm.'
He was using RIMM as an example ----- not specifically stating you shorted RIMM.
ok - perhaps minxy
but he is basically accusing me of being short qcor which is rediculous
minxy - i know we often have not seen eye to eye - but what do u think of these guys and their over $ 100 targets - i have not been here much last few mths - how credible are these guys (maxdad and lonewolf - more so maxdad?) on first glance they seem like pumpers....
I added also premarket at 26.25 and more at just under 26. The key is to hold them long term. Squeeze at $32 another at 40ish. Although the stocks valuation is much more you are the only one to pick your expectation. I will hold as long as they continue to hit earnings and add value, because at some point the shorts will cover. Eventually, investors will look back and wish they purchased and held this stock.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
oh really maxdad
im a realist and why i have 30-35
yes this is really worth 40-50 but the stock is heavily manipulated by shorts and why while it would be nice for it to hit $40 in next few weeks - not likely. that said anything is possible as this could squeeze huge - lets just im not counting on that