in note this am, despite BUY rating on stock, JEF analyst tried to reign in expectations Q1 based on mgmt's recent reiterations of Q4 conf call.
stock's down 6% as many FAST MONEY guys got in stock between $30 to $35+ based on BIG UPSIDE for Q1. what you're seeing today is the tempering of expectations to get rid of s-term traders/pumpers and bring in long-term holders. this is consistent with what i've been saying all along - at this current stock price, there's NO REASON to pump . let's allow the company execute and do their thing...and enjoy the ride. we're getting paid 3% to wait and enjoy the upside...and stock's up nicely YTD, so let's just keep the #'s conservative so we can relax.
my 2 cents.
i think most of longs here are too optimistic for 1st Q... there are too many "events" for 1st Q.
- 4th Q late order ($10m or so) that can lower 1st Q
- Biovectra unknown effect on 1st Q
- new support center move.
- MS continued weakness into 1st Q
of course we do have positives as well such as:
- Biovectra is profitable and their revenue will add 1st Q (2months)
- mixed lower reimbursement from medicaid (im assuming 5m this Q, and 12m going forward)
- NS contiuned strong results into 1st Q (according to CC)
- probably another price increase coming that should add to revenue going forward (2nd Q)
You are correct and im just sitting here and relaxing with my good amount of shares and the awesome dividend i'll be getting. I think starting 2nd Q we'll be very good and go forward to my triple digit stock price.
QCOR has 40+ more reps out there for a decent portion of Q1, selling into the rheumatology market where the pilot was very strong and Acthar has multiple indications. It seems to me your view of Q1 is based on:
--negligible impact of the expanded sales force;
--modest growth of NS, even though the NS sales force has logged another quarter expanding their reach; and,
--continued decline of MS revenues.
This view seems pessimistic to me, especially considering the contribution of a few pennies in Q1 EPS from both Biovectra and Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement.
I am not wildly optimistic for Q1 either. QCOR is spending heavily on infrastructure--both for reimbursement operations and sales--and by the way--this is a huge part of the reason I am a dedicated and incontrovertible long. Show me a company investing in sales and sales support--that's a company with growth plans.
I agree that Q2 is where the fun really starts. Equally, I expect QCOR to beat analyst projections quite handily in Q1.
The ride down Friday?
Fueled by "noise-not-news" from shorts and worse, a nonsensical report from Jefferies that both gave QCOR a BUY recommendation and set a target price of $38. $38????? Thanks Jefferies...for nothing. Next time, either call your report what it is--a hold or sell recommendation--or set a target price that at least somewhat mirrors the industry and supports your BUY recommendation. At even a ridiculously conservative $4 EPS for 2014, QCOR is a $45-$48 stock.
Makes ya wonder huh? Did Jefferies publish that piece of contradictory nonsense to drive down share price so they could get their clients involved in a winner? Do they have short seller buddies to back scratch? I'm not experienced enough to know--but it smelled pretty fishy to me.
Oh well--whatever--it was a terrific buying opportunity and that's what I did. Will trade a small percentage given the opportunity and hold on to the rest tighter than a claustrophobic in an underground tunnel.