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  • my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jun 13, 2013 7:43 AM Flag

    new price tgt, and the biggest risk!?!

    many of you know that i've been long and on YMB since QCOR was QSC and $1 (when Don Bailey first became the ceo). while i may not do the detailed analysis of mikey or pharmaman, i do understand the big picture of QCOR and how wall street works(l-term).

    previously i had thought $75 to $100 was a reasonable target, but i am now thinking $125-150 as a realistic near-term target(within 6 to 18 months). the smart $ realizes that the Synacthen acquisition is a game-changer(i wish everyone could see the the super-charged morale of current QCOR employees) and it removes probably the biggest competitive risk. importantly, this deal instantly transforms QCOR into a TWO drug company(w/ approved sales & marketing presence an approved drug in the europe and rest of world. further, given the voluminous actual patient data and clinical trials already available by Novartis(and will be given to QCOR), an NDA to be filed fairly soon here in the US(followed by approval, esp given the safety profile/history of Synacthen and possible orphan designation?).

    so what's the biggest risk now?
    imho, the biggest risk is that somebody comes in w/ a $125+ bid and puts QCOR in play as QCOR doesn't have a poison pill. with 2H momentum, reduced competitive risks, and the growth going into 2014, QCOR will be a $1B+, hugely profitable, and fast growing company(with 70 clinical trials and multiple NDAs incl ALS to address large unmet patient needs) - we will not be the only people who understand the investment thesis/potential.

    could QCOR be the target of an activist(like Icahn) or a large diversified pharma(2 current board members come from very successful acquisitive pharma co's, ie. Allergan and Shire and understands this well)? i do not know. however, from what i'm hearing, the long-term smart money big holders believe that QCOR can get to $200-250+($10B mkt cap) by itself if just left alone to execute. my 2 cents.

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