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Sotheby's Message Board

  • mmetro33 mmetro33 Oct 17, 2008 7:16 AM Flag


    This is the ultimate discretionary stock, and when money is tight, people spend less on multimillion dollar art. Additionally, those who wish to come to market wait until the demand picks up so they don't sell. Both of these reasons hurt BID.

    However, when the cycle returns in 2-4 years, BID will be higher...

    Right now, I expect it to base between 6-9. Somewhere in here, I'll be buying, be patient, and wait for the irrational upside...even if they kill the div.

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    • Well stated. I would add that the market has been pricing in lower earnings for the past year. That's why the stock is down 80%. What they need to do now is get their expenses under control for the tough times ahead.

      • 1 Reply to scroogemcduck62
      • well yes, I agree. I can tell you firsthand that in the luxury homes market where I live, absolutely zero transactions have taken place in the last several weeks.

        The han-up of have on buying Sotheby's stock is I need proof that they can handle their debt payments during much more difficult times ahead.

        As someone else pointed out, the financiers, who have largely been driving this market are licking their wounds.
        If they dare sell, 1) it telegraphs to the world, they need the money, because 2) the selling prices will be far below what they paid- especially since all but very few bidders are in the same predicament.

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