Like I said yesterday, Wall Street rarely gives us a no-brainer. They have with IDCC.
Now we have reports of GOOG interest .. what a surprise, huh?!? They (along with Samsung, HTC, and the rest of the Android faithful) are desperate for IDCC's IP. But, let's not forget the folks who already license IP from IDCC, including Apple, RIMM, and Sony/Ericsson - the winners of the NT auction. Are they going to want to be beholden to GOOG for the IP they are already utilizing? Not a chance! Would APPL and company want to put an IP stranglehold on the wireless industry for the foreseeable future? You bet!! Plus, there are numerous other major players who need continued access to IDCC IP (Acer, Hitachi, LG, NEC, etc.). What does this all add up to? I'll spell it out for you: B-I-D-D-I-N-G W-A-R!
DO THE MATH PEOPLE! It is the "simple" math, too!! If you put the dollar amount valuation from the NT auction on IDCC you get about $100/share. BUT, if you put a per patent valuation on IDCC (keeping in mind that IDCC's patents are neoterically greater in number and relevance) you get a per share price somewhere between $250 and $300. AND, let's not forget the 10K patents still in the que at the USPTO!
Bottom line is, we have a ways to go on this puppy. The ride won't be for the faint of heart. But, I expect MUCH higher prices from IDCC by the time a deal is announced ... and I think those prices will shock a lot of people (especially the shorts).
I doubt that goog didn't really want Nortel patents and instead wanted IDCC's IP all along. They wouldn't have bid 4 billion for patents they didn't really want. I think that they will be happier in the long run if they are able to get their hands on IDCC's IP even for twice that amount...PPS 150! jmho.
I think you brought up a very important point. The timing couldn't be better for this to happen. There are a bunch of companies out there needing to sign new royalty contracts with IDCC. With the ownership of IDCC IP in the balance, these companies are especially motivated in the event that goog acquires IDCC.
I agree with your summary. IDCC has a very strong portfolio of Wireless IP and based on the bidding war for Nortel's patents as you summarize and added IDCC IP this is going much higher.
Jim Cramer said on his 7/19 show said you should sell IDCC at market open today to lock in gains (7/20). Boy, he really gets it wrong big time on some of his advice. He says hey I am from PA and like IDCC but you gotta sell.. What type of advice is this for anyone who is paying attention after IDCC announced it was putting it self up for sale in this red hot market for wireless IP.
Has he noticed how many smartphones are selling now in US and all over world and growth numbers! Tablets, and 3G, 4G, WiFi, WiMax etc...
I got in to IDCC based on good research and I knew this day was coming. It now looks like IDCC will return huge for all share holders and there is still a lot of upside to come in the weeks and months until sale!