I invested in Koday because its patents are "foundational" patent since 85% of digital imaging relies on kodak's patents.
Can IDCC investors (not bashers) tell me what makes IDCC patent valuable and if you have any information/article showing what IP/industry experts are saying ?
It doesn't matter what time frame and juncture IDCC is now. It's a question of demand and supply, period. Based on Bill Merrit's statement that the value of IDCC's IP is much better and deeper than Nortel's. I don't think any bidder will submit something which is much lower than Nortel's auction price ($4.5B). That will waste time and efforts on both sides. BOD may consider $4B bid though but I doubt they will because the future prospect IDCC has unless you don't think there is one.
Botton-line is that do we have a bidder or not? This will be anyone's guess! But I'll say Yes, there will be some, not just one because IDCC has powerful and essential IPs to make the holder(s) navigate and grow in future wireless storm.
The risk is that Nortel's valuation metrics will not be replicated. It may have been a one time flash in the pan. That's all. No one is suggesting that IDCC's IP is not as good or better than Nortel's. Just that Nortel was in the right place at the right time, and that cooler heads have prevailed.
It's comments like that that debase this board. The market expects GR to be purchased by UTX for between $110 and $125, and GR shares are trading at $104 on massive volume. That's the way the market works. If the market expected the kind of valuations you all tooss around with respect to IDCC, the shares would not be trading in the low $60's. This is not the equivalent of a binary FDA approval. If ther is a deal here, it is likely to be for less than $100 per share. Just saying that you all are assuming a lot of risk for the potential reward.
Allegedly the patents aree worth more than Nortel's. Let's say at minimum they sell for the same around $4 billion. Then the cash market cap of IDCC would be at about 5 billion chich would be more than a 50% increase from today. I assume the reason the stock is trading at such a discount is because it ain't a done deal yet? I imagine there is some fear that if no deal is reached the stock will drop $15? I imagine though since they made this whole effort public, that they made a very important well thought out decision to do this, and I doubt they will flip flop. It seems there is enough interest that they will meet or exceed their initial expectations. I am in - this is a very good bet IMO. Of course you decide where you put your money.
To me, the main question is if there is a bidder?! In common sense, the bidding price shall not be less than $4.5B, the price the Nortel got. Otherwise, the board won't take it and the bidders are well aware of this before entering the bidding process.
So the bottom-line is do we have a bidder??? And my guess is yes, but time will tell.
A few points to keep in mind :
1. IDCC is not a bankrupt shell of a company like Nortel
2. IDCC is a very viable patent producing enterprise with
almost 300 specialized engineers that are engaged in
breakthrough telecommunication applications on an ongoing
3. Ocean Tomo and other companies that specialize in patent
appraisal have rated IDCC 4G/LTE portfolio at a greater
value than Nortel's. They also highly rate their 3G
4. Apple, HTC, Samsung and many other companies recognize
IDCC's technology and have current license agreements.
5. Bottom line is IDCC has approximately 441 patents that
have been classified, by IDCC and others, as essential
437 of those were developed by IDCC's engineers and 4
deal with antenna's, that IDCC acquired when they bought
Tannity. IDCC has more 4G/LTE patents that have not been
declared as essential, but are of viable use to the
6. IDCC currently has approx. $700 million in
All is jmho
How much more than Nortel's patents are they worth? Significant like 50%? With 700 million net cash they could wind up with 6 and a half billion in cash. But what will they do with that? Continue R&D? Distribute cash, keep or sell its R&D unit with its focused engineers? I am not clear what happens after the sale!
I am long IDCC but I wonder what their strategy is post auction.