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MIND C.T.I., Ltd. Message Board

  • juststeve55 juststeve55 Jan 22, 2013 2:02 PM Flag

    the start of a move?

    just could be, anyone else agree?
    s

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    • I have been watching this stock for several years and have been in and out several times around the dividend. It has done well for me. I am back in now and I plan to stay in. The company is well run and has proven itself to be a solid performer. The management team appears to be a gathering of professionals. The speculator in me says this solid performer will be bought out for a premium soon. I think sooner rather than later. However, if it is later, the dividends will keep me holding on. Good luck to all investors.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Steve,

      You wrote: "the start of a move?... just could be, anyone else agree?"

      I assume that you refer to the way that the per share price for MNDO has inched upwards over the last weeks -- and perhaps even are referring to the historic speculative run-up in the per share price for MNDO after the new years, in anticipation of a dividend related rally -- a classic case of self-fulfilling prophecy.

      Certainly, we are seeing a run-up that is consistent with the last years' run-ups, but I would caution that there was a general market run-up after the fiscal-cliff, year-end debacle, and, in general, stocks for companies located in Israel have recovered a bit after all the coverage of the war-drums of summer and winter have -- for whatever reasons -- subsided.

      Throwing caution aside, the run-up over the last two years does tell an interesting story..

      First it is worth noting that the run-up in early 2011 was different than the run-up in 2010 in that the gain made in the run-up was surrendered in the first half of 2011, and, significantly, half the 2010 run-up was eliminated during the first half of 2011 as well (overall the run-up in per share for 2011 went from $2.25, or so, to $3.25, or so, but the aftermath yielded a drop-off to $1.75, or so, reflecting an enormous cost for the run-up.) Likewise the run-up in early 2012, yielding a gain from $2, or so, to $2.75, or so, had a significant cost, dropping the per share price to $1.65, or so.

      (continued)

      • 1 Reply to pajacobsen
      • More importantly, the timing of the drop shifted dramatically between 2011 and 2012, reflecting, I think, a new breed of speculators. Whereas the drop in 2011 commenced at or near the ex-dividend date, reflecting, I think, good-old-fashioned dividend speculation (however misguided it might be,) the drop in 2012 commenced long before the ex-dividend date -- and, in fact, almost a full month before the company's announcement of the dividend, reflecting I think that we now are seeing speculators who speculates solely in the run-up (or perhaps in the drop-off -- depending on how you look at it) and have no real interest in the dividend.

        Certainly, if you had sold during the run-up and bought later, after or during the drop-off, you would have made a pretty penny over the last years. This is an entirely new dynamics and one that we should probably take note of.

        What it all means, I don't know. Assuming that the results for 2012 are satisfactory, there could be a dividend this year, which could be announced sometime in late February. However, if last year is a guide, we could see a drop in the per share price before that date, in early February, perhaps.

        (continued)

 
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