Well, despite the all too familiar pullback with KLIC the good news is that this morning it found support and bounced off it's 10 wk moving average at 9.16 which is kind of the dividing line between a longer term bullish and bearish bias.
Keep that level in your head - if we close below on a weekly basis it may be time to sell and come back later.
On a shorter timeframe we have a number of ma's below us that could provide support if we pull back more from here - any of these could be areas to nibble if you were so inclined:
50 dma @ 9.06
100 dma @ 9.12
250 dma @ 9.30
200 dma @ 9.57
As you can see, there will have to be some serious selling to get us below all that (but anything is possible in this crazy market so do your own due diligence of course)
Just got thru looking at the charts again. What a frickin free fall. 20% drop and blew past all the support lines, never looking back, and if people think the mm's weren't dumping shares , then they need to rethink the situation. Its pretty amazing all the stuff they can get away with. Just don't think this drop is related to flat out selling but more a case of no buying.
KLIC bouncing this morning but less than some other stocks on my radar screen.
Markets are/were short term oversold and got a gap open and lift but it will take some real positive news to get the S&P to get over and hold the 20 dma at 1228.
Still looking to lighten my already light positions into the rally. There will be some battles between the bulls and bears up at the 10 day / 50 day convergence ~ 1205-1207 and then the 20 day as mentioned up at 1228.
If we break above and hold the 20 on a retest then I'll think about unpacking my bull horns from cold storage but otherwise I am suspicious to say the least.
Congratulations on finding the carriage return.
I've been nibbling a little on other stocks today and yesterday. Still more fully invested than I'd actually prefer.
Scared of the knuckleheads in charge here and there(EU). And afraid they are doing serious long term damage.
As I posted at the time I wrote calls when I thought KLIC was ahead of itself all summer really.
I don't have the qty of shares I usually do (or did when were were under 3.00 for instance) so my plays were writing covered calls rather than outright selling.
KLIC itself is much improved, but can't swim upstream in this environment.
I am also thinking 8 before 10. Glad I didn't hold more than I did going into Scott's retirement and KLIC's improved product line and financials. If we do somehow get back to 10 first I'll simply write.
I'm thinking I'll have time to become fully loaded before KLIC's next significant rise and o.k. if I don't.
I've been building larger postions in a few other favorite small caps but about outta cash. And only adding to them because I think they are too low.
I started buying last time when it dropped to 10, months ago after a run, bought a lot in the 9's, and kept buying in the 8's. I was down over 10k at one pt when it dipped below 8, and thats why I was so quick to sell on this last move. I left some on the table but still made $$$, but really didn't like the guidance coming from the semi sector.
I'm with ya, charts are looking tough right here, and could get real ugly fast, but not sure Ben will let that happen at Christmas. Next year is a different story.
I remember years ago, a guy on the nvls board had a formula about 2.5 to 3 times volume on the upside or down, like klic did, and his formula worked a big majority of the time, leading to bottoms and tops. I used to have it written down, but I've moved since then and can't find it. It was real close is all I know, with it happening 2 days in a row, and also led to me selling.
I still think we might have a little push before Christmas but nothing worth buying except for real short term trades.
8 before 10 sounds pretty good again, but not sure if that happens, but if it does I'm ready to roll. I'm all cash right now, which is rare, and a weird feeling.
Hey Dave, I even used the space bar
In retrospect the move higher on no real positive news should have been the red flag. Some of the short posters on this board did mention this at the time but price is truth so as long as it kept a bid I was more than happy to participate.
There is a saying however that applies here: If facts change then I change. Right now even though we technically are clinging to the 50 day ma by our fingernails and have not made a lower low YET I am not willing to ride my full position into the ground (especially since they are options that will decay into mush with any further slippage) unless we bounce tomorrow I will likely sell out of the remainder upon losing and closing below the 50 day and watch from the sidelines.
Currently my nose is buried in a bunch of index charts and really I don't like much of what I see. The breakdown of the flag we had formed above this summers trading range is an ominous sign that came at the worst possible time for the markets. Unless the PPT (plunge protection team) shores up the charts QUICKLY, the best we could hope for would be a bounce off the October lows. We lose those levels and it could get really ugly really quickly.
Cash is a position and I chose to be overweight cash while we wait to see the fate of the free world in general and the equity markets in particular.
I hope I am dead wrong but hope is not a trading strategy as proven this summer.
Best of luck to all,
I just pulled all that up before reading your message. I'm a big believer in the moving averages as being support and resistance. A lot of semis have pulled back pretty good. Looking at brcm again, and will start buying soon. Waiting on klic !
KLIC under pressure today and trading badly. Poor relative strength. We are really up against the fence here. I would hate to dump at support but you can't just keep your head buried in the sand either.
Weekly 10 ma now at 9.13 - KLIC is sitting on this as we speak
50 day ma now at 9.07...100 day ma @ 9.10.
If we lost this support there is nothing more than a trend line I drew on my chart around 8.40-8.50 to work with.
It's gonna be a nail biter folks...place your bets accordingly.
Macro market is getting oversold on the shorter timeframes but when the downward pressure is on us we can stay oversold for a while as Dave and KSN can attest to.