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  • chickenhatsdotcom chickenhatsdotcom Nov 6, 2010 10:53 PM Flag

    Management confirmed today via e-mail that .....

    Well one thing that I think AERL won't suffer from is the typically low valuations seen by most of the China small-caps we all follow. BORN was a semi-sexy story and its valuation blossomed overnight until short-seller blog attacks brought it back down to earth. Macau is an extremely sexy story that's gaining traction daily, thus I think AERL can look forward to a decent P/E going forward, probably ending up at a multiple of at least 15 and I certainly don't think the stock will have to endure any short-seller blog attacks since gaming audits are strenuous.

    Right now and using the mid-point of 2010 net income guidance or EPS of $1.74, we're currently trading with a P/E of 5.85 based upon yesterday's close of $10.19 and thus I obviously think the stock's going much much higher. Keep in mind, just three trading days ago, AERL was virtually known by no one, but I guarantee you that'll change in a heartbeat.

    Technicians will claim that the stock's run too far too fast and those will be the folks that get left behind. I'd give some credibility to the thoughts of technicians if AERL didn't have such a low P/E and had the story already unfolded, but AERL is a new discovery to many and did anyone see the staying power yesterday ? Impressive for sure.

    Closing price next Friday ? I'll say between $12.50 and $15.00

    Lots of people missed out on the SCOK 16-day run from $3.50 to $53.00 and many missed out on the BORN run, but AERL's story blows away what any of those two companies will ever have.

    So to answer your question as to where the stock trades in the next 12 months, I'm still waiting for earn-out clarification from management, but based upon what I've researched so far, I'll say $30.00 a year from now.

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    • you considered REE, MCP & SHZ??

      • 1 Reply to xtechnicals
      • You ask about REE, MCP and SHZ ? Well I shorted SHZ on its initial run-up due to the rare earth hype and then I covered on the very nice pullback, mainly because SHZ isn't profitable and the rare earth thing will eventually die IMO. SHZ displayes strength once again on Friday and if the stock approaches $3.00, I'll be shorting it once again. REE ? Can't short it through Ameritrade, as shares aren't available, but that's definitely the one I'd short if I could. MCP ? I know nothing about it, but if it has to do with the rare earth thing, I'd probably short it too, but I'd have to look at the financials first.

    • Thanks Joe,

      What other stocks do you like?

      TIA

      Ben

      • 1 Reply to ironbrig1862
      • You ask what other stocks I like ? Easy answer ..... ZSTN. Why ? Well this past Wednesday, a short-selling blogger attacked the stock with a negative article pre-market, just shortly before the company announced absolutely "blow-out" earnings, also in pre-market. The stock took a nice, unwarranted hit and I scooped up many shares between $6.88 and $7.24

        Not only were "blow-out" earnings announced, but 2010 guidance was significantly raised, from EPS of $1.53 to $1.76 and the company's cash position grew astronomically in Q-3. The stock closed at $7.77 yesterday and thus you can see why I think ZSTN will soon bust through $10.00 and on upward.

        Many of the China small-caps have been hit with negative blogs by short-sellers, as they're all deep under water with their positions and are doing anything they can to try and salvage something. Fine with me, as I've taken full advantage of these hit pieces.