I got it as I was typing my reply on why I became concerned about AERL over Nov.'s result. As I said I was leaving the door open for an explanation............ here it is. BTW, I openly admit to hitting the panic button when I first saw the numbers.
Credit goes out to the two posters who gave a few reasons why it was a bad month, both were correct.
First, the Grand Prix is bad for the VIP biz. This year was no exception, it was (from the e-mail) "completely dead."
Second, credit was in fact reigned in, here's why. With the remuneration system exposing AERL to losses along with the casino the fact that the month got off to a bad start with regard to hold lead them get even more conservative.
"The impact is the win rate. If we get off to such a bad start, we
need to carefully manage the risk, You can't push as hard with regard
to big hands, and large players if you are already in the hole.
Basically, to manage the risk, we need to throttle the business."
So there it is. That is why the win/loss split makes the biz so much more volitile. If the win rate gets off to a bad start again you can expect another bad month. As long as biz picks up on the whole things should average out over time.
Management has more excuses than a chinese phone book has chins. These guys have spent two years meeting with investors and hyping the business in the face of declining roll and business fundamentals. Prior to the merger, the business was flat to nothing. Suddenly, a public RTO and explosive growth. The shorts had this right all along. Next up - dividend cut. The balance sheet does not support a dividend and stock buyback.