I did the same analysis. It is a pretty scary trend. The cash flow trend for the past 5 years is also poor. They get margin expansion in a volitile market environment like 2008. They are milking the complacent customers but that cannot last long. I have been looking over MLP's and wanted to buy this but you cannot fight the fundamentals ---and they are poor. This winter quarter could be poor as they are working off high value inventories purchased in the summer before prices crashed. They are pushing this high cost stuff off on unknowing customers some of whom are pushing back. I bad winter quarter would will take this MLP down.
That may be, but it won't be this quarter or the next. suburban isn't the only company holding prices while product costs crash and remain low. they all are, and that means super high margins. At least high enough to support the distribution for a couple quarters if not the year. after that, stay tuned.
margins will be poor because they bought at high prices and cannot sell the stuff at those prices with the market for propane way down. next quarter will be surprisingly bad I think. At $38.30 I am happy to exit to play another day. there are other MLP's yielding well over 10%. Plus this trend in lower gallons sold scares me to death. It would be Ok if it were just one year but it is 4 years running now. They did not elaborate on this in the last conference call. Hope you all continue to prosper but I'm otta here.