Pegintron Royalties, impact of Merck's 13Q1 results
Merck’s reported Sales
Victrelis vs PegIntron
11Q1 $1m vs $166m
11Q2 21m vs 154m
11Q3 31m vs 163m
11Q4 87m vs 175m
12Q1 111m vs 162m
12Q2 126m vs 183m
12Q3 149m vs 165m
12Q4 115m vs 143m
13Q1 110m vs 126m
#1) Victrelis sales for 12Q4 and 13Q1 are on a par, anyone shocked by the 13Q1 sales is late by one Q!
#2) Treatment terms with PegIntron as the sole active agent are 48 wks, recorded sales, inventories, etc., etc., have lag, hard to synch/mesh the two products, but the transition to shorter term regimens and the impact on pegintron sale is indisputable.
#3) PegIntron will eventually track with victrelis and then SHOULD tack either mk5172 or mk-7009, or both.
#4) PegIntron sales will decline but by no means vanish, Zacks March 1, 2013 forecast may not be perfect but is (I for one am confident) informed by the relevant market factors.
Significant Pegintron sales (~$300m to ~400m, if not more) are here a years to come, royalty values are not driving the pps imo.
So, billy, what the #### IS driving it? Can they sell the Royalty stream for $8 to Smellrose, a 1 month-old start-up finance company, that turns out to be registered to men in black visors? If so, what could we do about it but complain to the usual suspects?
I loved your story of the 2 hedge funds trading back and forth to each other at lower and lower bids, using a chain of offshore companies to cover the trail, but can they really keep doing that for weeks on end?
Memo to self: no more investing in takeover stories. The classic con-game is to make something look good to the mark, make the one you want to cheat sure he is cheating YOU.
I'm feeling a little Marky this morning, and am only pleased I found out the trick in the Put shell-game before buying any.
pj, getting back re your question earlier. I haven't figured out what is going on with the stock price.
Let me propose 5 scenarios and see if we can wittle them down and look for past and future signals. (Stock price manipulation is right up there in my mind along with royalties, licenses, and tech IP.)
Let propose 5 scenarios and argue agains one here, the others, or variations of them we can take on as event unfold. The hope is that we will reconnized signals past and future that add some element of Kentucky windage to our respective plans.
1) The free market forces and efficient market theory is at work.
2) Outsider or outsiders are taking advantage of the situation.
3) 5%ers are contentious, futile lords, each grabbing what they can.
4) 5%ers have a loose agreement, dividing the spoils by category
5) 5%ers have a plan or agreement, one head runs it, all meet in hell to enjoy the spoils
Propose we spend little time (not necessarily none) arguing for #1, here's why:
I don't believe we are seeing efficient market forces at work here's why:
Clearly in retrospect the 238K after hours trade, at $3.89 pps, on the 22nd of April (look back at topics, check yahoo price history), was a setup, no trades of that size in one go for weeks before or since. To my mind a clear transfer of a war chest to a third party or parties given a job. Stomp on the pps the morning of the 24th. I noted a couple of days later the duel roller ask-buy that was going on setting the price. The aggresive 10K shares on the ask-bid sides has subsided, but I think most would agree, the days long flat line behaviour of the stock is un-natural. The tone has been set "buy this stock and you're never going to see any upside", sell at our price or you'll eat your shares.
Why the manipulation I don't know. But I claim there's a definite pattern that looks too man made to be efficient market.
BTW pj if you, or others, reply, suggest to pj's post above, & keep the reply layers to a min
pj I am in situation where I have to type out everything on an iPad screen, pia, will comment more later. At the moment a lot of players with clout hold significant shares, they can't all be in on smellrose, getting a bag of yuan. Kind of the safety in numbers theory, for the moment.