ht, the omontys story is not over yet, if Takeda gets it cranked up again the ww sales potential is significant, it could add upwards of a buck to the royalties npv.
For details go to the yahoo mb search window and enter 'omontys', then scroll down to my May 25th projection. Takeda would still be on the hook even if Affymax is gone.
I expect mgmt to pull some kind of swindle if inside information indicates omontys may get going again. Takeda's effectively a privately held company as far as sec regs are concerned, another cash deal is likely, black market cash in Chine's Guangdong province changing hands, where it's almost a certainty that the IP was sold to Hisun imo.
Please go to the Affymax (Takeda's partner in Omontys) YMB for the battle lines. There are a number of very nasty shorts who have bashed Affymax silly for months. I on the other hand am personally convinced that it was human error by Fresenius personnel who FAILED TO READ OR UNDERSTAND THE WARNINGS OF POTENTIAL ANAPYLAXIS that came out of Omontys FDA trials and were fully documented to all dialysis practitioners using the drug...There were 3 fatalities out of 25000 patients (and many more dosages)...All 3 fatalities occurred on first use and all 3 occurred when Omontys was administered intravenously. There were NO serious consequences when Omontys was administered subcutaneously...NONE. Fresenius' (the dialysis company where all 3 fatalities occurred) Chairman stated last week at the companies conf. call that they are now working on a DNA test with Takeda...My take is that this was Takeda's concession to maintain Fresenius as the #1 channel for Omontys (F being the largest dialysis co. in the US). Very interesting puzzle...IF Omontys at fault (would have to be something OTHER THAN ANAPHYLAXIS which is unlikely)...Affymax is TOAST. IF Anaphylaxis, HUMAN ERROR or CLINICAL ISSUES (Fresenius has horrible track record for multiple fatalities) Affymax will be bought out by Takeda based on their recently Amended Agreement which spells out Perpetual Royalties and Milestone Payments worth 100's of MILLIONS perhaps more!!! Go to AFFY yahoo message board for the story ... you'll see there is quite a split between rabid shorts and the long community over what happened and what will become of Omontys and Affymax...
That is true. we still have value as it is. somebody will buy this or we get paid fat juicy dividend which will be treated as return of capital.
That said, I thought Omontys is on voluntary recall. no update at this time or am I missing something?
You're correct, the news since the recall has consisted of conflicting reports as to the cause of the deaths. Essentially two scenarios where in play as I understood things, worst case, formulation is at fault, best case, the screening protocol by the administrating clinics was at fault. I have not re-researched this since last look in May, but at that time the second scenario seemed to be in play. Takeda withdrew its European MAA in July claiming they needed time to investigate the root cause of the problem. The timeframe for concluding the investigation and restarting the MAA is six months to a year as best as I can tell, although restart in the US could be sooner, if the protocol fix scenario plays out. Again, not a lot to hang one#$%$ on here, but if it is a protocol problem, and can be fixed with more diligent application of patient screening, then, bang, MAA or not.
Or, management remains dead silent and steals everything away. Anyone else find this passage in the Q report fascinating: 'The Belrose APA had also provided for the sale by the Company of its interest in the Locked Nucleic Acid (LNA) Technology platform and related assets for $100,000 at a second closing; however, the conditions to the second closing were not satisfied and the Company continues to retain its interest in such assets."