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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • ivoroshea ivoroshea Jul 27, 2009 5:23 PM Flag

    All The Evidence Points To Results Being Released in mid/late August

    I can see there's a lot of (mainly new) shareholders very anxious to know the Phase III release date.

    This is an actually part of a posting I made last Friday which has since - for no reason that I can understand - been deleted from the board. I have used the 2 methods set out below on a fair number of other Phase III result dates and they've been right to within 1-2 weeks. I hope this version of the post stays up longer than the last time ...

    Method #1

    * Acadia announced on 6 May 2009 that completion of enrollment had occured.
    * Drug treatment under the trial lasts for 6 weeks. That means the last patient would have completed their treatment on 17 June 2009 (it’s possible enrolment may have been finished a couple of days before 6 May 2009 – but this isn’t material).
    * However (as mentioned by Roger Mills on Acadia’s 11 May 2009 Q1 2009 earnings conference call) the trial also incorporates a standard 4 week safety follow-up phase. That means the last patient wouldn’t be through this until 15 July.
    * Next must come the whole data cleaning & analysis work. This is a reasonably large trial : 298 enrolled patients & 78 locations (36 USA, 30 Europe & 12 India). Such work typically takes 1-3 months (my guess it’s towards the lower end of this scale here).
    * That gives a results range between 17 August to 17 October.

    Method #2

    *Acadia’s description of the trial on says the Estimated Primary Completion Date is August 2009. This is typically the month results are released to the market.
    * However, a great feature of is that you can track all the changes Acadia made to their entry for this trial. This allows you to establish the Estimated Primary Completion Date was changed from December 2009 to August 2009 as recently as 10 July 2009 by Acadia.
    * Interestingly, 10 July 2009 is only 3 working days before the 15 July 2009 final patient completion date estimated above.
    * Therefore, this approach means the results should be published in August 2009.

    Combining these 2 methods together gives mid to late August as the most likely release date. It also implies the odds of the results being released this week are very low.

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