That drug works. The real test for P3 in my mind is that if the redesigned trial captures pimavanserins efficacy. Through trial and error,hopefully Acadia has had to figure out the right parameters for the test. Consequently if it clears this hurdle the stock should do very well. There seems to be no question of safety, the trial design would be well formulated, the market need is tremendous, no real competition as of now and the path to FDA approval would be relatively straight forward. If the stock trades at $5 or $6 upon a favorable outcome here, then that would be a better and a safer investment. Tremendous upside and the main challenge for Pimavanserin would have been overcome and it would still only have a market cap in the $300mm range.
That SEEMS to be the situation, indeed. Of the various relevant charts, from the previous failed Phase III, divergence from zero base line to the end of the trial gave PIMA a number range between ~ 5.8 to to ~ 6.8 or so....
But Placebo range was between ~ 1.2 to ~ 5.8 during the same time. And that is really an anamoly, no matter how you look at it.
That's what the Company's argument was, for the current, redesigned Phase III, and that's what the FDA agreed with (the argument, that is).