I highly recommend that all longs (and shorts) listen to the earnings call. They are building as much value as possible into the pimavanserin franchise. There was a lot of Q&A and all the big names were there. My own opinion is that we're looking at Vertex like potential.
Opps, I meant to send message to investermdpart2 (no offense to mdinvestor)
I really enjoy your well written posts. I followed you at YMI as well. I also love the potential we see here with ACAD. I'm in the biotech/pharma industry myself and my own 2 cents is that we will see ACAD acquired sometime in the future. Their infrastructure isn't built out to support that kind of solo launch they would need to do. I'm not even talking commericially but rather from a Medical Affairs stand point. Typically a company would be ramping that up as part of a "pre-launch phase". I don't see any activitiy there. Again, this is JMHO.
I also intend to purchase more after being lucky enough to purchase shares before the big pop back at $4.
I wish you the best and will continue to look forward to your postings.
Good luck all longs.
Thank you for the note! It's great to know that you were in YMI also. That was a tough hold, but we were well rewarded in the end. I remember when Nick Glover used to refer to CYT-387 as 'a drug'. Pimavanserin is certainly starting to really look like 'a drug'. You've been in the business so your opinion is similar to mine...we both think large pharma wants/needs this asset and we don't think that Acadia is set up to launch this candidate. This is course just my opinion also.
I want to say that I could not possibly agree more with you. I have been thinking a great deal about the commercial launch and what would be needed. You are definitely right about medical affairs. Acadia is a virtual company for the most part and with under 30 employees. The CFO (Thomas Aasen) is wearing several hats and even acts as the head of investor relations. They are lean and mean in terms of structure and such an easy takeout target because of it.
On the call today they talked a lot about adding value to Pima. The value they can add would be to launch the Phase 2 trial in ADP and perhaps another trial in schizophrenia. Once that occurs it becomes much easier to assign a higher premium to these programs.
Having said all of this, large pharma is under no obligation to wait on Acadia if they want to make a bid. You can be sure that all the majors are looking and the last thing any of them want is a bidding war. There could be an advantage for a fast and early mover.
Anyway, you're thoughts are really interesting. Do you have any opinion on takeout prices?