Do any of you have estimates for when we might hear about pimavanserin in Europe? If the second Phase 3 is waved off there as well then it's of course huge. I think the US alone justifies $35-40 per share today and I'm not including ADP in that of course.
We need you on the CC asking questions. For sure an analyst will follow up on this question. It was asked a month or two ago and I believe Uli responded they will enter talks with Europe in the second half of the year.
I hope someone asks about your ADP strategy regarding Acadia passing on the current ADP trial which starts soon. Let me ask you if this "half way" strategy satisfies you. You mainly seemed concerned about contolling the risk (ie. what if the ADP trial is a bust). This is why a few weeks back I asked if Acadia is fed preliminary results from the CRO. So maybe by Dec they know how the drug acted on 50 placebo and 50 Pima patients. Knowing the results are good then full steam ahead with the trial. Knowing not so good might mean they cut the trial off and go with your strategy. I am sure the could sugar coat it in a way that makes it a positive.
I don't think they can quietly run a trial in ADP without it turning up on clinicaltrials.gov. I'm all for label expansion as you know. I just think it's the smart way to handle this asset. Clinical trials are so touch and go....I love to avoid them whenever possible...even if a drug works!
Thanks for the comment about pima and the EU. That's a really important value point for Acadia...especially in terms of upside. I'm sure large pharma partners are very interested in this. If another Phase 3 is needed then my guess is that Acadia will opt to do M&A or will find a partner just for Europe. It's going to be very interesting to say the least.