Ez, three questions
1) did you learn something about the NDA filing at the annual meeting?
2) what's you covered call strategy for the next three months?
3) do you think a buyout is currently a realistic scenario?
1. The only thing I learned re the NDA is NOT to expect a public announcement re the FDA mtgs this Q. There is no possible better source for this information. There was a 15 min. std presentation that contained the normal statement re 'by year end' filing. It will be interesting to see if this question is raised again at the jPM conference on Tuesday. I am not familiar with the format and there may be questions allowed only from the moderator, or none at all. IMO Uli has tight control over this process and has his reasons for wanting to maintain the stated position of Acadia over the last 6 mos or so, i.e. 'by year end' and I have the utmost confidence he knows what he is doing.
2. I am long Jan 15 $22/$30 Bull Call spreads in significant size (for me at least).
3. I have never thought that a near term buy out was realistic because of the valuation challenge posed by the potential success of ADP. To value the company just on the probability of a successful PDP approval and launch and ignore the 4X value of ADP (not to mention the ever growing other potential indications that mgmt continues to develop) would not be acceptable to the BOD or shareholders IMO. And I can't see a Buyer paying for the ADP revenue stream without, at a minimum, very high efficacy results from the Ph II ADP trial which could take another year. IMO this gap is far too large to bridge with a CVR structure, its like the tail wagging the dog. This info re a buyout is purely my opinion and is not based upon any info from the company.
I sensed Uli was a bit frustrated with the spotlight put on the FDA mtgs and continued questions as a lot of shareholders have been waiting for an accelerated filing schedule based upon rolling stability test data (guilty). If I had to bet, I'd say that Uli is focused on the greater, broader plan for the pimavanserin franchise and is dealing with far more important and far reaching issues than saving 4 months of pre filing time, JMO.
Hope this helps!
18/19??? My regret is not buying hand over fist when it kissed the 15s for a day, not too long ago. But I was demoralized by the biotech meltdown like most other people. ACAD's drop was especially freaky, coming right after it touched the 30s. Oh well...