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First American Financial Corporation Message Board

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  • jbmjbmjbm01 jbmjbmjbm01 Apr 8, 2004 6:15 PM Flag

    Is this stock starting to break

    I get the bad feeling it is.
    However, the statistics are soooooo good for this company, I don't see why it would
    go down much.
    The free cash flow is 1/3 of the total capitalization. This company is a terrific moneymaker.
    It's stock price just hasta go up.

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    • There's a group of stocks -- including at least CFC/Countrywide, NDE/IndyMac, FIC/Fair Isaac, CD/Cendant and of course FAF -- that are being considered as PRIMARILY dependent on the housing cycle or on mortgage transaction volume. In reality, their dependencies vary from "almost none" to "a minority amount."

      Nevertheless, when the market perceives that long interest rates are threatening to change (in either direction), all these stocks get traded like junk bonds -- and thus punished when rates are supposed to rise.

      Since I've owned various members of this group at various times over the past 12 years or more, I can testify here that this falsely-analyzed vulnerability to supposed rate changes ALWAYS creates good buying opportunities. A stock like Countrywide trading under a trailing P/E of 7 is totally absurd, and FAF at this price is nearly as much so.

      No reason to get panicky. This quarter's earnings should create a different mood. For a preview, look at the March operational data that CFC will release in the next couple of business days; solid numbers on transactional volume and total funding will almost guarantee the whole sector will turn around.

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