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Radware Ltd. (RDWR) Message Board

  • tucksox1 tucksox1 Oct 12, 2012 3:06 PM Flag

    Cyber Warfare

    I'm new to this company/space and given the heightened concern of late over our cyber vulnerabilities and the growing threat of crippling attacks, I'm wondering which industry player(s) are best positioned to help mitigate the threat and protect the integrity of our networks/software/ the extent that they can be. Radware and Juniper are the two companies that I'm most familar with (which isn't saying much) but is one or the other considered best of breed or is there another company with the technology solutions that are a cut above? Thanks in advance.

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    • I am no expert, but there aren't many companies that focus on denial of service solutions. Checkpoint is one of the largest security companies out there and they didn't have a solution, but instead signed an OEM agreement with Radware in June. I can not understand why this stock is not going up. Checkpoint has their quarterly call on Wed. and it should be interesting. Radware has theirs on Oct. 26. Needham spent two days with Radware recently and was convinced that their business plan is solid. My only concern is if even Radware technolgy is having a problem stopping the attacks.

      If their solution is one of the best (which it appears it is) then this should be selling like hot cakes. Particularly now they have Checkpoint's larger sales force and VAR channel pushing the product. Checkpoint has to be heavy in the financial markets. These attacks will move to other Fortune 500 companies like the airlines, amazon, etc., any company that is doing a tremendous amount of commerce over the net directly to the consumer.

      I am surprised that either IBM or Checkpoint hasn't bought Radware, but they may want too much. Rumor was Riverbed had a $47 bid in 2010 and this was when Radware was much smaller and not with this big market ahead of them. Radware is probably thinking they can double the stock price on their own in two years.

      The other rumor is anothe major OEM agreement is in the works. I don't know how true this is as Checkpoint may contractually not allow it now. IBM could use the technolgy, so could CSCO, HP, EMC with RSA and others. Checkpoint may not care if IBM OEM's Radware technology because IBM would probably buy Checkpoint in a minute if CHKP was open to it.

      It is going to be interesting. I strongly recommend the stock. Realize they have $250m in cash (Yahoo is incorrect). This is over $11 per share in cash. When you take out the cash their forward PE is around 12. For a tech security company to be at 12x is ridiculous.

      Good Luck!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to bimmertx
      • Thanks very much for your input. I do like what I've read and heard about the company and right now I'm impatiently waiting for the much talked about market pullback. Given my longterm investment time horizon you certainly could argue that waiting may pose equal risk.

      • Stock is weak due to weak tech and weak F5/CTXS. I doubt there is another security OEM ahead. But they do need an Enterprise/Data center ADC OEM, something they have been working on for years. Not sure why that is taking so long. M&A is always possible but Checkpoint is not known for big deals, and with an OEM they can wait. Cisco is exiting ADC and for IBM ADC does not seem that critical. But agree this stock is worth more - organic or inorganic.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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