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# Radware Ltd. (RDWR) Message Board

• kdp2561 kdp2561 Oct 29, 1999 1:34 PM Flag

## My estimate for earnings

My estimate for earnings is at least 0.11 per
share. Here�s how I worked it out! In the previous
quarter RDWR earnings were �\$178,000. They said this loss
was 82% lower which means previous quarter�s lost
must have been \$1,000,000. (
(1,000,000-178,000)=822,000 or, 822,000/1,000,000=0.822 or ~82%) Now I made
the conservative assumption that they increase
earnings by that same amount, \$822,000. So,
-178,000+822,000=644,000 But this is for \$5,500,000 in Revenue �same as
last quarter. But Quarterly revenue increased by more
than 300% last Quarter. I�ll be conservative and say
just 300% for this quarter. So, if you can do \$644,000
of earnings from \$5,500,000 in revenue then when
revenue triples� that�s \$1,932,000 in earnings. This all
may be a bit simplistic but I am looking for a rough
order of magnitude here. Now, \$1,932,000
earnings/14,600,000 shares=0.132 dollars per share. Or 13 cents a
share! Now let�s be even more conservative and take 15%
off of that! 0.13*.15=.0195 but lets say 0.02. So,
0.13-.02=0.11 or 11 cents per share. Now that means that I can
get a company with the same earnings as FFIV at less
than half the price! Not only that but the Market Cap
of FFIV is \$2,500,000,000 while the Market Cap of
RDWR is \$779,000,000. This means that Radware as a
company has 1/3 the value of FFIV while they earn just as
much if not more. All of this adds up to a Rapid
Growth, Excellent Value stock that will not be ignored by
smart investors. If your short, you had better do the
math!

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• Just kidding.... go night EVERYONE.

• You are right it will only make new highs as it nears earnings date (thurday before the bell)--if they are good--I can see a15 point day!!

• Yes, It will gap. I see no resistant from here on. We clean most of the short sellers at 56-58 range today.

• You know dude, you're right. It makes no sense to
anticipate potential trouble with a stock as part of a
trading strategy. Why protect the down side? Better by
far to be only optimistic. No point in thinking like
a bear on every trade to avoid bear traps. Its much
more fun in the perfect world. Rock on.

• been reeding the last couple ofhundred posts on
this board for the last week or
so.

WOW!

Are you guys lucky! So much info, So much analysis
and so little of the foul mouthed
fools that
populate so many boards.(But, if this stock takes off, get
ready for all the idiots,fools, teenagers and bashers
and shorts!)

I'm still debating RDWR and HSAC
for monday.
RDWR has the highest ROI potential (in
my opinion) but also the most risk. HSAC may be an
easy 4 point play. (RDWR, if its numbers are good, the
market stays friendly, et., could do 20 or more points
BUT!!! the risk for a sell off -if the numbers aren't
grand, the market isn't freindly, if money junps to a
new hot sector, etc. - could be equally
dramatic!)

Also, Don't get caught up in arithmatic analysis based
upon the market leaders!!!!
If so and so sells at
32 times earnings DOES NOT MEAN THAT THIS COMPANYT
WILL!!!!!!!

Anyhow. i think the risk vs reward is in the favor of
going long here.

• You make sense

• the WHO'S WHO in the GROUP on Internet-Network
Security.......Network Solutions.......of 25 companies based on earnings
per share and relative strength ranks: RDWR
#7.
FFIV not even on the list. THAT BODES WELL FOR THE
FUTURE IMO:)

• ya that RDWR is a growing dynamic company and I
don't have any rosecolored glasses on, and I don't care
what fund managers do, only what I DO! FFIV makes more
\$ and looses more \$ in the ratio than RDWR does.
What does that tell me? It tells me RDWR will make
more profits. There is ROOM FOR MORE THAN ONE COMPANY
as well BEAKY! I have no opinion on FFIV, and when
RDWR reports, that will take care of any doubts so
obviously lingering in your investment choice. Maybe you
NEED GLASSES!

• the reason it closed near lows is two fold....one
the spoos dumped somewhat with 5 minutes left in the
session....and two (and more significantly: Marketmakers in this
stock actually tend to sell off the stock into every
close...because they know they can open it higher the next
day...and make up the difference.

Check any
intra-day chart and you'll see that is true. 75% of the
time....this stock gap's open...then comes in a few mintutes
later as the volume tapers off.

cheers...

• If you think it's going to 100 what are you
waiting for? It's consolidating right here right now. No
one here think this thing going to go up 5 points
every single day....but this is THE week for it to
run...

Look around...there simply aren't enough internet
infastructure companies around. Even if you agree that all
these companies are overvalued...simply based on supply
and demand....the sector is headed higher...when?
Immediately.
Plus, the first 4 days or any month are bullish for the
market as a whole...and Novemeber 2nd is one of the 5
most bullish days of the entire year for the past
decade. While your waiting to save 2-3 points....were all
going to be making another 15 or 20 this week.

Don't want you to be one of those person's that didn't
buy FFIV before the earnings...because it had run 7
pts. the day before....and figured you wait for the
post earnings sell off to get the "best
price".

Risk 5 pts. on the down side to make 25 on the
upside....sounds like good risk reward to me.

But that's
just me. I'm buying more on Monday.

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