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Radware Ltd. (RDWR) Message Board

  • kdp2561 kdp2561 Oct 29, 1999 1:34 PM Flag

    My estimate for earnings

    My estimate for earnings is at least 0.11 per
    share. Here�s how I worked it out! In the previous
    quarter RDWR earnings were �$178,000. They said this loss
    was 82% lower which means previous quarter�s lost
    must have been $1,000,000. (
    (1,000,000-178,000)=822,000 or, 822,000/1,000,000=0.822 or ~82%) Now I made
    the conservative assumption that they increase
    earnings by that same amount, $822,000. So,
    -178,000+822,000=644,000 But this is for $5,500,000 in Revenue �same as
    last quarter. But Quarterly revenue increased by more
    than 300% last Quarter. I�ll be conservative and say
    just 300% for this quarter. So, if you can do $644,000
    of earnings from $5,500,000 in revenue then when
    revenue triples� that�s $1,932,000 in earnings. This all
    may be a bit simplistic but I am looking for a rough
    order of magnitude here. Now, $1,932,000
    earnings/14,600,000 shares=0.132 dollars per share. Or 13 cents a
    share! Now let�s be even more conservative and take 15%
    off of that! 0.13*.15=.0195 but lets say 0.02. So,
    0.13-.02=0.11 or 11 cents per share. Now that means that I can
    get a company with the same earnings as FFIV at less
    than half the price! Not only that but the Market Cap
    of FFIV is $2,500,000,000 while the Market Cap of
    RDWR is $779,000,000. This means that Radware as a
    company has 1/3 the value of FFIV while they earn just as
    much if not more. All of this adds up to a Rapid
    Growth, Excellent Value stock that will not be ignored by
    smart investors. If your short, you had better do the

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    • Just kidding.... go night EVERYONE.

    • You are right it will only make new highs as it nears earnings date (thurday before the bell)--if they are good--I can see a15 point day!!

    • Yes, It will gap. I see no resistant from here on. We clean most of the short sellers at 56-58 range today.

    • You know dude, you're right. It makes no sense to
      anticipate potential trouble with a stock as part of a
      trading strategy. Why protect the down side? Better by
      far to be only optimistic. No point in thinking like
      a bear on every trade to avoid bear traps. Its much
      more fun in the perfect world. Rock on.

    • been reeding the last couple ofhundred posts on
      this board for the last week or


      Are you guys lucky! So much info, So much analysis
      and so little of the foul mouthed
      fools that
      populate so many boards.(But, if this stock takes off, get
      ready for all the idiots,fools, teenagers and bashers
      and shorts!)

      I'm still debating RDWR and HSAC
      for monday.
      RDWR has the highest ROI potential (in
      my opinion) but also the most risk. HSAC may be an
      easy 4 point play. (RDWR, if its numbers are good, the
      market stays friendly, et., could do 20 or more points
      BUT!!! the risk for a sell off -if the numbers aren't
      grand, the market isn't freindly, if money junps to a
      new hot sector, etc. - could be equally

      Also, Don't get caught up in arithmatic analysis based
      upon the market leaders!!!!
      If so and so sells at
      32 times earnings DOES NOT MEAN THAT THIS COMPANYT

      Anyhow. i think the risk vs reward is in the favor of
      going long here.

    • You make sense

    • the WHO'S WHO in the GROUP on Internet-Network
      Security.......Network Solutions.......of 25 companies based on earnings
      per share and relative strength ranks: RDWR
      FFIV not even on the list. THAT BODES WELL FOR THE
      FUTURE IMO:)

    • ya that RDWR is a growing dynamic company and I
      don't have any rosecolored glasses on, and I don't care
      what fund managers do, only what I DO! FFIV makes more
      $ and looses more $ in the ratio than RDWR does.
      What does that tell me? It tells me RDWR will make
      more profits. There is ROOM FOR MORE THAN ONE COMPANY
      as well BEAKY! I have no opinion on FFIV, and when
      RDWR reports, that will take care of any doubts so
      obviously lingering in your investment choice. Maybe you

    • the reason it closed near lows is two
      the spoos dumped somewhat with 5 minutes left in the
      session....and two (and more significantly: Marketmakers in this
      stock actually tend to sell off the stock into every
      close...because they know they can open it higher the next
      day...and make up the difference.

      Check any
      intra-day chart and you'll see that is true. 75% of the
      time....this stock gap's open...then comes in a few mintutes
      later as the volume tapers off.


    • If you think it's going to 100 what are you
      waiting for? It's consolidating right here right now. No
      one here think this thing going to go up 5 points
      every single day....but this is THE week for it to

      Look around...there simply aren't enough internet
      infastructure companies around. Even if you agree that all
      these companies are overvalued...simply based on supply
      and demand....the sector is headed higher...when?
      Plus, the first 4 days or any month are bullish for the
      market as a whole...and Novemeber 2nd is one of the 5
      most bullish days of the entire year for the past
      decade. While your waiting to save 2-3 points....were all
      going to be making another 15 or 20 this week.

      Don't want you to be one of those person's that didn't
      buy FFIV before the earnings...because it had run 7
      pts. the day before....and figured you wait for the
      post earnings sell off to get the "best

      Risk 5 pts. on the down side to make 25 on the
      upside....sounds like good risk reward to me.

      But that's
      just me. I'm buying more on Monday.

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