BRZE is especially attractive based on its price and projected growth. Although the broadband industry hasn't taken off as quickly as many imagined I believe it's only a matter of time.
Part of it is affordability for what you are getting. I don't think I would pay very much so that pages would load faster. There has been no driver for broadband other than that so far. In my opinion, new content is the only thing that can drive the push to broadband.
Much like the situation with PCs. In the beginning, everyone needed to upgrade their PC's often because the software (content) was eating up so much computing power that every time you wanted to upgrade software you were almost forced to upgrade your PC. That has changed -there is no software that utilizes that much computing power (except commercial software, CAE, FEA, etc.)
I think that the content is coming. There have been whispers lately that right now as I type this Microsoft is doing to Real Networks the same thing that it did to Netscape. They are "embracing and extinguishing" them.
I recently recieved a free new computer from my employer with the MS ME OS and I am fairly impressed with the free video (playing and editing) software that MS includes. But, guess what? I can't play real player videos with it. SURPRISE! Real Player will be the new Netscape in 1-2yrs in my opinion.
All of this matters because MS doesn't just want this market so that they can give away (or even sell) their software. They plan on offering more extensive content. (Just like they killed Netscape in an attempt to gain MSN users) This content will be exclusive to MSN, if I'm right, and so they plan to increase market share of the service provider market by offering more extensive content. In addition, they will fuel the next upward cycle of PC sales at the same time -PC's with their OS. This will force competitors, AOL in particular, to create content of their own so they can compete. Although, this is already in the works at AOL Time Warner I don't think they have the sense of urgency that they should. MS and NBC will be coming after them sooner than they anticipate.
What all of this leads to is a market (rich with new innovative broadband content) which will drive new PC sales to some extent. But the real growth will be in the wireless broadband market as people will be reluctant to spend twice as much on something that performs the same functions but isn't portable.
So, I think this is a winner. If didn't have so much of my money in the market already I would be right in there -especially at this price. It's a more compelling value than even RDWR currently. I still have to look at AUDC, but I'll get back to you. Good Luck!
PS -I believe the biggest driver for new PC sales in the future will be voice recognition. So, when MS starts rolling out voice recognition in their OS buy MSFT or INTC and you can't lose!
I came accrossed RDWR through a search of stocks in the same sector as ARTG. I focused mostly on the financials and chose RDWR along with SYNQ from a pack of about 30. Any company that can have an increase in annual revenues of 400% and increasing sequential earnings will be recognized. In my mind the question is not if but when.
I was surprised it didn't move higher yesterday. I figure some traders took profits. I'm a trader on any stock I'm in if it goes up enough but only trade about half of my retirement savings.
Anyway......I really enjoyed your story and links.
Thanks for your response - I also view this as a hobby, which is both enjoyable and can make you $$. I have followed CHKP as you have with RDWR - you are right that it takes a lot of time and is hard to do for more than a small number of companies. As I researched CHKP I liked it more and more and put more eggs in that basket, which then led to more and more research, etc. FFIV and RDWR I put in a small number of eggs and much less research.
You haven't been proved right yet about RDWR but so far the results are very encouraging. The company looks very promising and in a couple of years you may be amply rewarded for your research and patience. Unknown stocks like this often don't move the way they "should" based on earnings, news, etc., I guess because of the small number of shares. But if the company keeps executing it is only a matter of time before it becomes discovered and the stock will follow suit. I look forward to your posts here and hope you make good $ on this stock. You might want to look at the other two small Israeli companies I mentioned, BRZE and AUDC. They have many of the characteristics that CHKP had early on, I like them even more than RDWR. I'd be interested in your opinion if you have the time to look at these.
I had orders in also that didnt fill. QLGC at 80 1/16 and BRCD at 81 1/16. I missed by less than 1/2 point on both. QLGC i think has pretty good earnings and growth even though RDWR is my long pick. I just hold it even though i paid $30+ a share ..it will come back. QLGC has been a great trader. better value than EMLX and does basically the same thing...it was a spin off from EMLX. and about 3 cents better earnings a qtr than EMLX. at least for now RDWR holding 20..its been running up to 30 on earnings..guess not this time.
I believe RDWR's 2001 EPS will be at least $.60 . This assumption is based on 50% growth in sales ($60M compared to $40M). But based on current growth it might be double.
No idea on prices on Monday. I wonder how SSB arrived to target price of $55.
JDSU is a great company. Price dropped today 10% I believe it was a great temptation to buy it in such lower price. But with 96 cents EPS for 2001 it might be risky.
I pulled it in the last 5 minutes to buy JDSU at 50.
On the bright side.....I already have quite a few shares at 18.46875.
Monday should be good!!!
Good tithings to all.....
Archived by........mark_your_words $:^)
For those of you who do not read hebrew here are some extracts from todays article in the finnacial news site THEMARKER.CO.IL
1. SSB believes that rdwr's latest product gives it an edge of about 8 months over the competition
2. SSB maintains the "BUY" rec on rdwr with a target price of 55$ - 150% ABOVE than the current price.
3.SSB expect rdwr to grow 43% in 2001, and to earn 47 cent per share
I wonder how SSB can be so precise about 2001 sales($54.5) and earning (47 cents per share).
By analyzing RDWR's products, market, customer base and more data we predict that revenues will climb to $60 million with EPS of 60 cents.
If the product developed with CMVT launch during 2001 we will see even better results