As long as Nat Gas stays low, there is no reason for Uranium to go higher. The plants that are shut down in Japan are still delivering power out to the consumers so the prices will keep dragging until the excess supply is depleted; most likely late 2016 into 2017 at the earliest. Dead stock until then which will likely go down to the $1 level again before going much higher.
Who knows? but here's another supply source we forget about
US selling stockpiles
While oversupply is definitely at play when it comes to keeping prices down, another concern is the US government selling its uranium stockpiles to cover expenditures. Both Chang and Berry agree that isn’t the wisest of decisions — on the one hand, the US is selling its metal stockpiles, and on the other, it’s not good for the uranium market.
“The US Department of Energy (DoE) has the authority to sell, or ‘bleed’ its excess supply into the US domestic market,” Berry explained to UIN, adding that based on his calculations, the “DoE has about 25 years of supply and can sell an amount each year that does not exceed 10 percent of average annual domestic demand — approximately 5 million pounds of U3O8.”
As Berry pointed out, this is not the first time the US government has sold its critical metal stockpiles. And in the past, selling the stockpiles has led to increased concern about resource dependence. That’s a crucial issue considering that domestic production is only about 5 million pounds of uranium and consumption is closer to 50 million pounds.
However, as Chang explained, the government needs to watch its budget and will find funds where it can. Unfortunately, as Chang said, selling uranium stockpiles “does hurt the uranium market.”
Thomas thank you for information, but it would help if you would post a reference for the article excerpts you post even though in most cases with a web search it is not difficult to find them. In this case you cherry picked the most negative part of an article regarding the future factors effecting uranium’s supply and demand. Granted the near future for uranium prices is not looking great, but reading the entire article does give a more accurate and slightly less negative picture.
Since clicking on some links can sometimes cause problems I prefer to post Web Search Criteria as a reference. The title of the article and author or publication will usually work well. For instance in this case the article could be found by doing one of the following web searches: Uranium Renaissance: Fact or Fiction? Vivien Diniz OR Uranium Renaissance: Fact or Fiction? Uranium Investing News. Usually the articles will have comments from readers presented below. Many times the comments are worthless or worse, but in this case a very good and useful comment was posted and is presented below.
Excellent piece Vivien. The US must be desperate for cash if they are considering selling off reserves into the lowest point of a soft market.
I don't believe that the current lower cost of NG is a threat to the future of nuclear as the cost can vary widely over the period of just a few months, whereas the price of nuclear power generation is quite predictable and steady over the course of years, even when considering new facilities.
Is that the reason Uranium fell so much? IDK. DNN is flat. All my other longs are red. I gave up on the few internet stocks I owned yesterday ie LOV, PCLN etc... Got cash, but hard to put it into Uranium or their miners until Uranium shows signs of life. Thinking about the precious metals based on Syria & Ukraine.